People often say that if you don’t advance, you will retreat. This week, the polyester filament market failed to maintain the rising trend after the Spring Festival. The quotations of most products showed a loosening of 50-100 yuan/ton during this period. If the actual transaction price is further considered, the price of some polyester filament varieties The downside space has actually reached the level of 150-200 yuan/ton.
Regardless of price or volume, with the stagnation of product prices, the sales of polyester filament have also dropped significantly recently. Not only traders in the market have felt the coldness, but also the polyester factories, such as many The production and sales rate of polyester factories is less than 30%, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories is once again facing the threat of rising.
From the analysis of market conditions, the price of polyester filament has fallen. First, it has been affected by the impact of upstream raw materials. The polyester market has opened high but declined, especially the raw material end, which has led the decline. The slow recovery in demand after the holiday combined with the increase in seasonal accumulation pressure on the supply side, the marginal supply and demand of PTA and ethylene glycol on the raw material side worsened, and crude oil fluctuated downwards, and costs collapsed. After a brief high after the holiday, it quickly turned into a downward trend. Downstream polyester products are mostly hampered by the raw material end, and prices have fallen. Secondly, due to seasonal factors, terminal recovery has been relatively slow, and the terminal has not yet been significantly launched. Market production and sales are sluggish, and downstream polyester products are mostly hampered by the raw material end. The price fell back.
Based on the current market situation and looking forward to the later market price of polyester filament, the editor believes that there is still the possibility and room for a negative decline. The views are as follows:
1. The price of upstream raw materials is difficult to improve for the time being, and the suppression effect on polyester filament will continue to be unleashed. Looking at PTA products first, international crude oil prices have fallen, and the PX market is also facing the embarrassing situation of relative oversupply. In the first quarter, PX is expected to supply 3 new units with a total of 6.2 million tons, and PTA is expected to put into operation 2 units with a total of 3.75 million tons. tons, so the polyester end is expected to be put into production at 3.19 million tons. From the perspective of supply and demand of new equipment, PX>PTA>polyester, raw material pressure will be greater in the first quarter of 2023, and cost savings are expected to weaken. The imbalance of PTA’s own supply and demand has become its fatal “flaw”, coupled with the fluctuation of traders’ mentality, etc., it is determined that the PTA market will find downward support in the short term; from the past interaction between polyester raw materials and polyester filament Look, the weakness in the market for polyester raw materials will inevitably have a strong suppressive effect on polyester filament.
2. Downstream demand will not release power in the short term, which will have a pull-down effect on polyester filament. The market is still in the slow start-up stage. Factory gray fabric inventories have not changed much compared with those before the holiday, but are still at a high level. At present, the holiday atmosphere is gradually receding, the new order atmosphere is not smooth, and there are generally few orders. Considering that the market price continues to rise before the holiday, downstream prices are gradually increasing. To replenish positions, gray fabric factories are not willing to replenish their stocks due to limited profits. In the later period, as factories resume work and production, weaving operations may increase significantly in the near future, but the specific demand situation requires attention to new orders.
3. The production of new equipment in the polyester industry has entered an intensive stage, which will have a considerable impact on the market. The supply and demand relationship in the domestic polyester market is already severely oversupplied, and the commissioning of these new devices will further exacerbate this oversupply, eventually triggering more intense price competition and impacting the market.
Taken together, it is expected that polyester filament yarn will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. Although terminals will resume work in a concentrated manner, as new orders have not been placed centrally, and the load of polyester filament factories will also increase rapidly, the supply and demand side is difficult to be favorable. In addition, poor performance on the cost side and the long holiday have also led to greater pressure on finished product inventories of some polyester filament companies.
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