The price of polyester filament has hit a new low this year!
As of the 15th, the market price of polyester filament POY150D/48 is 6,850 yuan/ton, the market price of FDY150D/96F is 7,650 yuan/ton, and the market price of DTY150D/48F is 8,250 yuan/ton. The prices have hit a new low for the year, and profits have also appeared. Large manufacturers have suffered large losses and have reduced production to protect prices, but the source of demand is difficult to change. Most downstream companies have made up for it rigidly and have less stock.
Nowadays, the polyester and polyester market seems to be in a long cold wave. From this, we can’t help but ask, where will the market fall?
In the past, demand in the fourth quarter will be a process of turning from strong to weak, and it is difficult to pass on the high costs of downstream factories in the early stage, as well as many factors such as polyester filament production profits and high inventory. We believe that the polyester market is expected to be weak in the future. There may be a short-term rebound during the period, but the overall weakness may be difficult to fundamentally improve. The specific influencing factors are as follows:
1. The macroeconomic downturn suppresses demand, and it is difficult for raw materials to make an upward breakthrough.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, in U.S. dollars, due to factors such as inventory backlogs in major markets, declining demand, and reduced orders, the year-on-year and month-on-month declines in textile and clothing exports in October expanded, with clothing exports declining significantly. , down 17% year-on-year. On the other hand, a survey released by Bloomberg News on the 15th showed that economists are more pessimistic about the level of inflation in the United States in 2023 than before. At the same time, against the backdrop of rising interest rates, the likelihood of the U.S. economy entering a recession continues to rise.
From a demand perspective, as inflation intensifies, global demand for textiles and apparel has weakened, which has affected the import and export of various markets.
2. The terminal peak season has left, and market players are bearish on the market outlook.
With the departure of the traditional peak season of Gold, Nine and Silver Ten, the off-season of demand is approaching. The downstream market, which was also uncertain in the early peak season, may experience a decline in orders. The industry is more worried about the sluggish sales of polyester in the later period. This week, Jinsheng and Hengli Some devices have reduced production for maintenance, so the operating rate has been lowered. However, the operating rate of polyester filament manufacturers has not dropped significantly as expected. As of November 11, the average operating rate of domestic polyester filament companies was 80.33%, down 1.19% from the same period last week. , an increase of 1.25% compared with the same period last year. This will inevitably lead to another increase in inventory, so we have bearish expectations for the future market of polyester raw materials.
3. Low processing fees support PTA price resistance to falling prices
Oil prices and PX prices fluctuated strongly, and PTA cost pressure was greater. Due to the input of new PTA equipment, the expected increase in supply has restricted the market. At the same time, the downstream demand is weak, and it is difficult for rigid demand to support the market. Under the weak supply and demand structure, PTA lacks motivation as costs strengthen, and the processing fee drops to 100-300 yuan/ton. low level. As of November 10, based on the current exchange rate of 7.0899, the processing difference between PTA spot and PX spot remained at 286 yuan/ton.
As of November 11, the domestic PTA weekly average operating rate was 72.47%, down 0.15 percentage points month-on-month and 4.13 percentage points year-on-year, with a weekly loss of 394,000 tons. Recently, Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2 million ton unit increased its load to 95% around November 5; Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 350,000 ton unit began maintenance on November 3, and the restart time is to be determined; Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million ton unit is planned to be in mid-November Maintenance; Zhuhai Ineos’ 1.1 million ton unit plans to undergo maintenance in mid-November, with an estimated time of 40 days; Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000-ton unit plans to shut down for maintenance for five days at the end of November. As of now, the domestic PTA operating rate remains at 72.49%
And under the current low processing fee situation, PTA prices are highly resistant to falling prices. Therefore, under this support, there is limited room for PTA prices to fall, and the polyester market may be able to stop the decline.
Taken together, the overall polyester end is currently weak, with profits compressed and inventories high, leading to increased equipment maintenance, and it is expected that the load will decline significantly in the future. The polyester terminal weaving segment has entered the off-season, but currently short-term terminal orders have increased due to the influence of Double Eleven and the Christmas season. There is still support in the short term, but orders in the later period are still small, especially overseas orders have not yet recovered, and the overall downstream terminal demand is still supported. On the weak side. When terminal demand is weak and production and sales continue to weaken, in the next stage, the polyester segment may achieve the purpose of destocking through price reduction promotions to promote production and sales in the short term, but it will not improve the contradiction between supply and demand.
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