At the beginning of the new year, in the eight trading days ended January 12, the textile and apparel sector performed strongly, with an overall increase of 4.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (-1.16%), and ranking at the forefront of the Shenwan primary industry. Among them, four stocks including Mugaodi, Taimusi, Xiangxiniao and Zhongyin Cashmere Industry all rose by more than 5% today (January 12).
The beginning of 2022 ushered in good news for the textile industry, revealing signs of further recovery in the industry. 01
Polyester yarn still has room for upside after the holidays
The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and most weaving companies will also enter the holiday period. However, at this time, the price of polyester filament suddenly continued to rise sharply, which caught people off guard. Driven by the rise in international oil prices, the prices of polyester raw materials PTA and polyester filament continue to rise. Polyester filament has continued to rise for 13 consecutive years. POY150D has increased from 6975 yuan/ton to 7780 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.54%; DTY150D has increased from 8550 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.36%; FDY150D has increased from 7200 yuan/ton. Ton rose to 8,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.11%.
On the one hand, driven by crude oil, polyester filament yarns still have room for growth. On the other hand, based on the trend of the polyester market in previous years, the editor concluded that the price changes of polyester basically follow this pattern: it starts to rise at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the increase is even more amazing after the year, and continues until the end of the “Gold Three Silver Four” period. . It has become a common practice for polyester yarns to increase prices after the Spring Festival, which is also an important reason why weaving manufacturers like to stock up at the end of the year. Judging from the current upward trend of crude oil and polyester yarn, there is no intention to put on the brakes. If there are no unexpected events, the possibility of polyester yarn maintaining its upward trend after the year is still high.
02
The market will bottom out and rebound in the fourth quarter of 2021
The market bottomed out and rebounded in the fourth quarter, and the overall market order volume improved significantly compared with the same period last year. Especially in the foreign trade market, there has been a substantial improvement. Especially in the recent period, many foreign trade companies have reported that orders have improved, with order volume even several times that of previous months. Many companies have received orders for hundreds of thousands of meters, and long-awaited large orders have finally appeared. A foreign trade boss revealed: “At the end of December, I received a foreign trade order of 800,000 meters. This order exceeded all my orders in the second half of the year. It has been a long time since I received an order of this amount. Foreign trade is recovering. I believe It will get better and better next year.” At the same time, in the domestic sales market, there have been cases of supplementary orders and repeated orders, and the number of market orders has increased again. In addition, orders for spring and summer are also being placed one after another. Many companies have received new orders for spring and summer, led by imitation silk. Most of them are for thicker imitation silk products such as SPH. Elastic fabrics have also improved. Most of them are thin four-way elastic and high-elastic fabrics, which are the first choice for spring and summer clothing. Normally, as the holidays approach the end of the year, orders from upstream and downstream companies will see a corresponding decline, and all factories are also winding down. The market that should have been gradually closing has turned out to be a “closed door”, and the pending foreign trade market has also recovered. There are various signs that in the new year, everything in the textile industry is heading towards the bright future.
03The performance of the textile and apparel industry is generally good
Looking back on 2021, the performance of the textile and apparel industry in 2021 is generally good, and both performance and profits have increased significantly compared with 2020. According to statistics from Tonghuashun, among the 114 listed companies in the textile and apparel industry, 82 companies achieved year-on-year growth in net profit in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for more than 70%. Among them, 36 companies doubled their net profits year-on-year during the reporting period.
The good performance of clothing companies not only means that they have brought more orders to downstream companies, but will also directly affect the number of orders placed in the new year. In fact, clothing companies have large inventories, which has always been a pain point for the industry. Because of this, it is difficult for demand to rise. In 2021, the performance of clothing companies is good, which also means that there is not much inventory left. So when there is not much inventory, there will be more new orders in the new year, instead of using the autumn clothing in 2021 for the spring of 2022. sales. After experiencing 2021, the mentality of many textile bosses has improved significantly compared with last year. In the past, due to excessive inventory, production and burden were reduced one after another. Now, with the surge in raw materials, production has been restricted and suspended. The “confidence” has increased. Zeng Jin’s pressure may become a “sweet burden.” Inventory will become a “hot cake” again, and when the market returns after the year, the price of gray fabrics may first rise.
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