Market news:
Yisheng Lian’s 2.2 million ton unit currently maintains 50% operation due to unit failure, and the recovery time is to be determined.
A 2.2 million-ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance for 15 days in the near future.
Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 650,000-ton PTA unit was shut down for maintenance on the 14th due to a device failure and was scheduled to be shut down for about 3 days.
Reignwood Petrochemical has a capacity of 1.4 million tons. It stopped due to fault No. 6/5. It has now been restarted and is operating at 50% load.
The second phase of Hanbang Petrochemical has a capacity of 2.2 million tons. It stopped due to a fault on the 13th and is expected to resume in the near future.
Fuhaichuang’s 4.5 million-ton unit is expected to stop production for maintenance around July 3, and the maintenance is scheduled to take about 20 days.
Unexpected, PTA supply-side maintenance It broke out again, and the market’s rising sentiment continued to help.
At the opening of the market on the 14th, PTA futures opened straight higher, and then continued to run at a high level, and the market trading atmosphere was quite active; after midday, the main PTA futures rose slightly Narrowed, as of the close on the 14th, the main 1909 contract closed at 5,234 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan/ton, or 1.2%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. The trading volume is concentrated at 2,580,736 lots, and the open interest is around 1,587,524 lots.
Spurred by equipment maintenance and favorable futures prospects, the PTA spot market Activity has also increased, and the price center of gravity has been lifted. On the 14th, the mainstream negotiated price in the PTA spot market was concentrated at 5530-5580 yuan/ton, and the quoted price in US dollars was referenced at 705-715 US dollars/ton.
Not long ago, the raw material PX surged, and PTA The market conditions are also rising accordingly; this wave of PTA supply-side maintenance has been intensively carried out, which has also driven up the PTA market. Of course, this is also inseparable from the strong assist of international oil prices.
On the morning of the 13th, there was news from the Gulf of Oman There was an explosion and two oil tankers were attacked and caught fire. After the news came out, international crude oil prices soared during Asian trading hours, with Brent crude oil prices rising by more than 4% to more than $62 per barrel. As of the close on the 13th, Brent crude oil rose 2.23% to US$61.31/barrel; WTI crude oil rose 2.23% to US$52.28/barrel. Previously, international crude oil experienced continuous sharp declines.
Preliminary market estimates indicate that PTA may enter the inventory accumulation stage in June, and the inventory accumulation is expected to reach 200,000 tons. As the PTA market supply continues to decrease, this may alleviate the accumulation expectation to a certain extent. However, whether the PTA market can continue to develop in the future ultimately depends on the demand side.
Polyester inventory pressure has temporarily eased, but it is still at a relatively high level!
After the explosion of production and sales in the early stage, the inventory of polyester manufacturers once fell sharply, which indeed alleviated the early inventory pressure; but year-on-year, the current polyester Ester stocks are still at a relatively high level, which is a fact that cannot be ignored. A large part of the reason is that the inventory backlog in the early stage was relatively large. The gold, three silver, four red and five red stocks were supposed to be destocked in May. The market conditions failed to be continuously positive, and the overall production and sales did not advance well.
The profit and loss line of polyester is hovering, and the cash flow is not ideal!
The polyester market is to PTA manufacturers what the downstream weaving market is to polyester manufacturers. What needs to be mentioned here is the cash flow situation of polyester factories. In fact, similar to the downstream weaving market, the accumulated inventory of polyester factories also increases their financial pressure in disguise. In the early stage, downstream weaving manufacturers carried out a wave of purchasing operations out of a certain bargaining mentality. However, as the polyester market gradually returned to dullness, downstream market purchases also gradually became cautious and returned to the rhythm of on-demand purchasing. A short-term positive stimulus can stimulate temporary enthusiasm for purchasing, but the sustainability is not high. As polyester manufacturers adjust their own cash flow and operating load, the performance of demand may weaken accordingly.
Generally speaking, the maintenance of PTA equipment at this stage is mostly short-term. Hyping maintenance to push up prices is actually more difficult to sustain. After all, supply reduction is not very durable, and the positive support is relatively limited. The final decision comes down to end market demand and the transmission between upstream and downstream. Under the influence of many factors , lacking basic support, the sustainability of the PTA market rebound still needs to be verified by the market.</p
