The top of my head is green! Affected by the decline in the bulk market, the polyester industry chain has experienced a resurgence and has fallen into a wave of decline!
Being the first to bear the brunt, chemical futures were naturally the most sensitive and suffered a collective decline. PTA futures have closed sharply for three consecutive trading days since entering this week, with the main 1909 contract falling 2.2%, 4.4% and 1.62% respectively for three consecutive days; as of the 15th, the main contract closed at 5578 points. The 1907 contract even hit the intraday limit on the 14th. On the 15th, the decline was still large, and it fell 4.2% again at the end of the day.
As a small partner of polyester, MEG futures are also continuing to bottom out. , its main contract hit the daily limit on the 14th, and finally closed with a decline of 3.16%; on the 15th, it closed down again by 0.91%. Although the domestic overhaul of ethylene glycol has begun slowly, the room for improvement of high inventory is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate after the overhaul is completed; the extent of losses is also at a historically high level.
Unable to escape this wave of decline, polyester manufacturers also opened a downward channel on the 15th. The price of various polyester filament products has room for reduction by 100-200 yuan/ton. The actual trading volume is large and there is room for discussion. discount.
Tongxiang direction: The polyester yarn POY price of a major mainstream manufacturer in Tongxiang has been reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton; Tongxiang The price of polyester yarn from another factory dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, and we will discuss it if the quantity is large.
Shaoxing direction: FDY of a factory in Shaoxing fell by 100-200 yuan/ton.
Xiaoshan direction: DTY from a factory in Zhejiang dropped by 100 yuan/ton; POY from a factory in Xiaoshan dropped by 150 yuan/ton, and a discount of 150 yuan/ton is available depending on the volume. tons; DTY of a factory in Zhejiang fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the transaction can be negotiated.
Jiangsu direction: The price of polyester yarn from a factory in Jiangsu dropped by 100 yuan/ton, with discounts for large quantities; FDY from a factory in Wujiang dropped by 100 yuan/ton , discounts are negotiated depending on the volume; FDY of a factory in Wuxi is stable, but the transaction is more negotiable; polyester yarn POY of a factory in Taicang fell by 200 yuan/ton.
In recent days, the polyester industry chain has been in a “depression” situation. In fact, except for macro factors In addition to the negative impact, the negative fundamentals are the root cause of the market downturn!
1. Polyester production and sales continue to be weak, and inventory pressure appears
The price of polyester manufacturers has dropped. Ultimately, it is affected by weakening market demand. After the May Day holiday, the transactions in the weaving market did not improve. The overall trading atmosphere was not as good as in the previous period. Sales pressure in the fabric market gradually emerged, and the prices of some products fell. Although the current operating rate of the weaving market is still stable, with water-jet and air-jet operating rates around 70-90%, weaving manufacturers are cautious about raw materials and purchase on-demand due to financial pressure and market outlook. Attitude.
It can also be seen from the above figure that due to demand, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has generally been weak in recent times, and the overall production and sales have been weak. According to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream factories are mostly concentrated at around 60-80%, and some better factories are only at 100% or slightly above. As market production and sales slump, inventory pressure on polyester manufacturers is gradually increasing; although the current industry inventory is still within a tolerable range, compared with the same period last year and the previous stage, polyester inventory pressure has further increased.
2. Polyester burden reduction plan, PTA destocking expectations may change
In terms of weak production and sales, rising inventory, and profit In the weak situation, it is expected that polyester manufacturers may have plans to reduce loads in the future to ease inventory and profit pressure; this may restrict the PTA market’s destocking expectations to a certain extent. In addition, some market participants predict that under the influence of various factors such as the peak of PTA maintenance having passed and the early release of PX negative news, the expectation of PTA destocking may gradually transform into an expectation of a balance between supply and demand.
In the short term, PTA inventory is still at a low level, which may support its price; however, the profits of the polyester industry chain are now excessively concentrated on PTA, which is indeed not conducive to market development. towards. Putting aside macro-level influencing factors, the most critical factor in the polyester industry chain is still affected by the terminalNegative pressure from weak demand. </p
