After entering April, when the entire polyester industry chain was in a sluggish situation, PTA could be said to be the leader, biting off most of the polyester industry chain. cake.
The PTA of “eating alone”
If used One word to describe PTA’s performance in the past month or so would be “stable”. The price of upstream PX collapsed, “brother” MEG fell into a deep loss situation, and the downstream polyester filament continued to plummet, while PTA felt quite like Zhang Wuji in The Legend of Heaven and the Dragon Slayer.
Let him be strong when he is strong, and the breeze blows on the hills;
Let him be horizontal when he is horizontal, and the bright moon shines on the river.
He is cruel to himself, and he is evil to himself, but I am very angry.
No matter how other people’s prices move, the price of PTA is so stable.
We can see from the price list that whether it is compared with last year or Compared with the same period last month, the price of PTA can be said to be outstanding.
If this doesn’t seem obvious enough, let’s take a look at the profits of the polyester industry chain.
Except for PTA, other products, whether PX, MEG or polyester filament, have only a few dozen profits, and some even suffer losses.
The four-digit processing fee of PTA stands out among them, which is equivalent to eating up all the profits of the entire industry chain, and there is still some polyester filament left. Tangtangshuishui, and you can’t even order soups, tangtangshuishui, etc. However, at least for PTA, this “eating alone” is really a pleasure.
Why can PTA eat “alone”
I am so angry
In the past few years, because PTA production capacity has increased significantly in a short period of time, PTA has been in a situation of oversupply for a certain period of time, and PTA has also fallen into losses. .
In the past three years, PTA’s production capacity has almost remained at a stable level, with almost no new production capacity introduced, but there will be some changes in output.
According to statistics, in 2017, the domestic PTA production capacity was approximately 50.9 million tons, while in 2018, the new PTA production capacity was only 1 million tons, and in 2019, the new PTA production capacity was only 1 million tons. The production capacity is nominally 6.5 million tons and will be 13.2 million tons in 2020.
However, with the continuous development of my country’s polyester industry, the demand for PTA from domestic polyester factories has grown steadily every year. According to statistics, in recent years, my country’s annual polyester production capacity growth rate has been between 7-9%. Between one ebb and flow, PTA has gradually developed from oversupply to tight supply and demand.
In 2019, just at the point when PTA equipment’s “old power has declined and new power has not yet emerged”, the supply and demand situation in the industry chain suddenly reversed.
Just like the saying in the Nine Suns Divine Skills General Outline, “I am full of energy”, since the goods are produced and there is no fear of not being sold, then why should the price be reduced?
PX Price Collapse
We can see from the previous price list that the price of PX, the raw material of PTA, has dropped by more than 100 US dollars/ton in just one month.
From the perspective of international oil prices, although international oil prices have fluctuated slightly due to geographical factors in the past month, the fluctuation range is far from that large.
The reason for the collapse of PX is also obvious. Since Hengli’s refining and chemical equipment was able to successfully produce PX in large quantities, the supply and demand balance of PX in the market was broken. The original “Profit star” PX was suddenly knocked from heaven to the bottom.
Coupled with the domestic refining and chemical integration projects being launched one after another, the supply of PX will inevitably become higher and higher in the future. If nothing unexpected happens, PX should be available in the short term. It is difficult to make a big improvement.
But after the collapse of PX, the price of PTA stabilized, so the profits naturally took off.
Big guys open up the polyester industry chain
In addition to the two points mentioned above, we also have to see that more and more chemical fiber giants are choosing Open up the business model of the entire industry chain.
PTA giants such as Yisheng, Hengli and Tongkun are also polyester giants, and another polyester giant Xinfengming’s 2.2 million tons of PTA The device is also being constructed overtime and is expected to be officially put into production in the third quarter of 2019.
For these big guys, as long as they can finally get the profits into their own hands, there is not much difference whether the profits are distributed at the PTA end or the polyester filament end.
Therefore, these big guys are happy to maintain the status quo in a short period of time.
How long can PTA eat alone?
The wisdom of our ancestors tells us that oneIf a person keeps eating “alone”, it will definitely not last long, and PTA is naturally no exception. How long can it “eat alone”?
Judging from the spot price, on May 8, the spot price of PTA was 6,620 yuan/ton, while the price of the PTA1905 contract that was about to be delivered reached 6,682 yuan/ton. , futures and spot prices are inverted, it can be seen that the market’s expectations for future PTA are still optimistic.
From a supply and demand perspective, as new PTA devices are put into production in 2019 and 2020, PTA will gradually change from a tight supply and demand situation to a slightly surplus situation in the future.
However, we must also see that the current terminal weaving industry is in a sluggish situation, which has caused a great impact on the production and sales of polyester filament. As a result, the inventory of polyester factories continues to accumulate, while profits are eaten up by the cost side of PTA. Under such circumstances, in the future, polyester factories are likely to increase the intensity of plant shutdowns and maintenance, extend the maintenance time, and impact PTA’s supply fundamentals, thus affecting PTA’s profits to a certain extent.
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