Since March, the supply side support brought by OPEC+ oil-producing countries’ advancement in production cuts has pushed up oil prices, and the market’s bullish sentiment has increased. OPEC has released signals to continue production cuts, which has piled up good news. International oil prices have successively refreshed the levels since November last year. New highs. However, in March, the rise of raw material PX was difficult to continue, and the market conditions of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG were also weak. Unexpectedly, the polyester filament market finally saw an improvement, with overall volume and price rising.
In this month, we will briefly review the price performance of each product here!
Crude oil: Positive accumulation, setting a new high in more than four months!
In March, boosted by good news such as an unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and a production limit agreement between OPEC and its allies that tightened global crude oil supply, international oil prices rose steadily; As the bullish sentiment in the market increased and positive news piled up, international oil prices once hit a high of more than April. As of March 22, New York crude oil April futures settled at 59.04 yuan/barrel; Brent crude oil May futures settled at 67.03 US dollars/barrel.
PX: Prices fell and profit margins shrank significantly!
Although international oil prices have steadily increased, the PX market has been unable to continue its upward trend. In early March, the PX price continued its previous upward trend and reached a relatively high level. However, the good times did not last long, and the center of gravity of PX prices fell under pressure, falling in a straight line, especially in the middle and late periods of the year when prices continued to fall. As of the 22nd, Asian PX prices fell sharply to $1,029/ton FOB South Korea and $1,048/ton CFR China, and European PX prices fell to $946/ton FOB Rotterdam.
Due to the decline in PX price focus during the month, although PX’s cash flow performance has been acceptable in the recent stage, it is still lower than last month. As of the 22nd, PX cash flow dropped significantly to US$119/ton, which is still a certain increase year-on-year.
PTA: It rose first and then fell, but its profits increased significantly!
In the recent period, the PTA spot market has first declined and then increased. The market price focus has been declining in the early stage, and then rebounded sharply near the end of the month; boosted by the good market news, the three At the beginning of the month, the futures market was still rising strongly. Driven by this, the PTA spot market also rose steadily. However, in the middle of the year, the futures market fell under pressure, and the spot market was also weak, with the price center weak and falling; the weak market continued into the middle to late period. As of the 22nd, the quotations in the internal market were concentrated at around 6530-6600 yuan/ton, and the transaction negotiations were around 6450-6530 yuan/ton.
As for profits, PTA manufacturers’ profits have increased significantly. Although the price increase of PTA was not large during the month, as the price of raw material PX dropped significantly during the month, the profit margin of PTA increased significantly during the month. As of the 22nd, PTA’s cash flow has risen sharply to 491 yuan/ton; there is also a large room for year-on-year growth.
Ethylene glycol : It’s miserable, prices and profits have suffered heavy losses!
Recently, the ethylene glycol market has shown a volatile pattern of rising first and then falling. During mid-to-late February, the market price rebounded and lasted for nearly ten transactions. However, by mid-March, the negative pressure reappeared and the price center became weak again. As of the 22nd, the spot quotation of ethylene glycol was concentrated around 5,000 yuan/ton; it fell sharply by nearly 1,900 yuan/ton year-on-year, a huge drop. At the same time, restricted by the fluctuation of its own price center, the cash flow of ethylene glycol has further declined. As of the 22nd, the profit margin of ethylene glycol has dropped to US$30/ton; it has dropped by nearly US$250/ton year-on-year.
Polyester filament: production and sales are booming, and profits are improving further!
In early March, stimulated by the cost of upstream raw materials, the quotations of mainstream polyester manufacturers tended to rise, and the downstream market was in a higher mood to pursue the increase; production and sales rebounded to 150-150 Around 180%, some better ones reach 200%, 350%, and 400%. In the middle of the middle period, the market returned to flatness again, with many stalemates operating, and production and sales also fell slightly; but in the middle and late half of the year, driven by cost boosts, demand explosions and favorable market conditions, many mainstream polyester manufacturers made supplementary increases on the 21st, and some manufacturers even closed prices. The market was reluctant to sell, and transactions suddenly became hot. Some manufacturers’ shipments hit records, and the upward trend continued on the 22nd.
In recent times, due to fluctuations in the cost of upstream raw materials, the profits of polyester manufacturers have improved, especially FDY, which has a larger profit margin; POY has also turned losses into profits and performed well. The current profit margin of FDY150D is 836 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 300 yuan/ton from last month, and an increase of nearly 100 yuan year-on-year. POY’s profit has also increased from a slight profit to a substantial revenue. The profit per ton has risen sharply to around 526 yuan, but it is still inferior year-on-year. The same is true for DTY150D. Compared with the previous month, the profit margin has increased, rising to 456 yuan. / ton, but still fell year-on-year.
As the “Golden Three” market gradually comes to an end, various products in the polyester industry chain have both joy and sorrow! Amid this ups and downs and ups and downs in the market, do you have expectations for the “Silver Fourth” or the “Red May”? </p
