Whether it is PTA or MEG, prices have risen continuously at the beginning of the month and frequently set new records. Driven by raw materials, polyester filament, which has always been strong, will naturally not miss the “wind outlet” and staged a story of “rising as raw materials rise” Good show. In previous years, taking advantage of this trend and the increase in peak season points, prices will continue to push up the flames. However, this year, this good show only lasted for a “three-day tour”, and polyester companies were “kings” in previous years. Isn’t the “poor selling melon” style of speculation feasible? What exactly went wrong?
The author believes that the concentrated release of many negative expected factors on the upstream raw material side is a fleeting stimulus to the market. Incentives: Recently affected by rumors about the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects, the commissioning of new PTA equipment, and PX maintenance, coupled with the large withdrawal of PTA’s previous boosting funds, polyester raw materials fell rapidly after rising sharply in early March.
The real reason lies in the demand of the downstream market. The March peak season of downstream weaving is expected to drive a short-term increase in polyester production and sales. However, when the demand for later orders is less than expected, “Three Days” After the “tour” market, prices of polyester manufacturers have stabilized again, and the expected effect of inventory reduction is not obvious.
Orders are lower than expected, and we are bearish on the rising price of raw materials. Weaving companies are not buying it anymore!
Through recent market visits, we learned that in mid-March, although the weaving market showed signs of the peak season, it did not show the performance of the peak season. At present, weaving companies The production of gray fabrics in China is relatively good. Orders can be scheduled until mid-April and daily stable production can be maintained. However, most gray fabric companies report that product orders have almost all been finalized before the Spring Festival. The status of new orders after March has not been stable. Not reflected.
At the same time, the movement of goods in the trade market is not very smooth. The overall number of orders is not large. Compared with the same period last year, the number is far behind. It is understood that products such as imitation silk, nylon spinning, high-density polyester taffeta, and matte card-breaking are relatively popular on the market. Recently, the average price of nylon fabrics has increased by 0.1 yuan/meter; the imitation silk series fabrics have increased by 0.1-0.2 yuan/meter, and matte and card-breaking fabrics have even been out of stock; in comparison, some fabrics have been sold relatively slowly. Weak, such as four-way elastic and some pongee fabrics.
In addition, after factors such as raw materials and labor have increased year by year last year, the original huge profits in gray fabric prices have been squeezed. Now the average water spray machine rate is only about 40 yuan/day. , which is also far from the over 100 profits in the first half of last year, and Boss Bu is not very enthusiastic about taking orders.
In general, the current market is not as good as expected, the products are seriously polarized, the market goods are not prosperous, and it is difficult to drive the entire market. Coupled with the lack of profits, factories are also selective in accepting orders, so the overall market situation is still relatively stable. Due to the relatively stable market conditions during the peak season and the preservation of raw material inventories for on-machine production, it is conceivable that the rise in raw materials has been relatively calm and procurement has become cautious.
And polyester companies are soaring like “Wang Po sells melons” The method of prompting the downstream to stock up crazily no longer works. To what extent is our weaving market downbeat about raw material information? The author believes that using upstream raw materials to stimulate downstream purchases is no longer a panacea for ending the downward trend of the polyester market. The era of copying the market price due to a meeting or a few pieces of information has passed. “Once bitten by a snake, you will be afraid of the rope for ten years.” The situation in the second half of last year is vivid in my mind. The weaving factory was bitten once, and the next time Will he still be recruited?
Is the dyeing fee increased because downstream orders are ready? Do you know the truth?
Yesterday, there was news that dyeing fees in various places are beginning to show signs of rising, but is it really downstream demand that is going well? We can get a glimpse of it from the published price increase list. The pressure on the cost side of water, electricity, labor, dyes and the intensity of strict environmental protection inspections are the key factors for the increase in dyeing fees, but they have little push for actual demand. According to the investigation, the current printing and dyeing market in Shengze and Pingwang areas is still in a stable stage. The delivery time is generally 10-15 days, and there is no “hot” situation. Some printing and dyeing factories are not “full” yet, and the production workshops are also If it is not operating at full capacity, we can only say that “the peak season is not yet booming!”
Under the negative macro environment, wait for the market to return to the good side
The overall inventory of polyester and polyester factories is now 20-27 days, which is back to a high point. At the same time, if the polyester market price wants to rebound, it must have favorable support from the upstream raw material market. However, at present, international crude oil is weak and stable, the external bulk environment is generally weak, the PX market is under pressure, and the raw material PTA market cost support is weak. Taken together, it is difficult for the raw material market to show a strong trend in the short term.
At the same time, the downstream is still in the inventory digestion cycle, coupled with the influence of buying up but not buying down, the support for rigid demand is not strong. At the same time, the recent profit and price trends of polyester products are roughly the same. The double price drop of PTA and MEG has driven the profits of polyester products to rebound rapidly. Under the background of maintaining profit margins and destocking polyester, polyester manufacturers may increase price reduction promotions in the short term. To boost production and sales, we will focus on the direction of raw materials and the recovery of downstream orders in the later period.
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