Since November, the polyester market has been weak and lacks upward momentum. It is reasonable for polyester chips to follow the trend. Polyester chips have received a heavy blow. Its price centerline has plummeted, falling to around 7,650 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of the previous month, it has dropped significantly by nearly 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.2%.
Since November, international crude oil has been in a weak position, the domestic commodity market has also fallen back, and the PTA and MEG prices have fluctuated within a narrow range. Operation, the trading atmosphere in the slice market has dropped, and the focus of negotiations has also dropped. Affected by the decline in international crude oil, the PTA spot market is also weak, polyester manufacturers are slow to destock, and the chip market continues its weak decline. By December, the upstream raw materials were still weak, and the downstream chip spinners had a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for replenishment. The trading atmosphere in the chip market was sluggish. In addition, downstream companies had a certain amount of stockpiles before the year, and most of them mainly replenished goods sporadicly. , the demand is not big. This has led to a steady decline in slice prices, which have fallen to the 7,600 yuan/ton mark.
However, polyester chips are falling, some are happy and some are sad. The good news is that the cash flow of chip factories has rebounded, but the sad thing is that the purchase intention of downstream chip spinning companies is not strong. What is the reason for this? The author briefly analyzes it as follows:
Cost reduction, chip cash flow rebounds
As we all know, the factor that directly affects the profitability of polyester chips is cost. , and PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials of polyester chips, and their prices determine the profits of the chips. At present, the price of PTA, the main raw material, has been declining and is at a relatively low level. Although ethylene glycol is not the main raw material of polyester chips, the decline is larger than that of PTA, reaching -21%. Therefore, the cost aspect of polyester chips cannot be underestimated. Thanks to the sharp price drop of upstream raw materials, the current price of polyester chips can maintain its cost and thus start to make a profit. Although the price of polyester chips has fallen and production and sales have been sluggish, profits have exceeded 200 yuan/ton! This seems to be a happy event for the polyester chip factory.
The load of polyester chips is high, and some polyester factories have plans to reduce production
Currently The polyester chip load has been maintained at about 80%. It is reported that a polymer spinning filament factory in Ningbo has reduced production by 10% since December 27, and plans to overhaul it by the end of the year; involving a production capacity of about 500,000 tons; a Ningbo polymer spinning filament factory plans to start reducing production in early January, involving a production capacity of 400,000 tons 10,000 tons, the entire line will be shut down on January 15, and the restart time has not been determined. The device is supporting the production of polyester POY, staple fiber and chips; Shaoxing No. 1 Polymer Spinning Filament Factory has successively reduced production recently, and plans to shut down the entire line for maintenance around January 10; involving The production capacity is about 400,000 tons, mainly equipped with semi-gloss FDY, glossy FDY and differentiated varieties. Due to the current high chip load, some polyester factories have begun maintenance and production reduction. However, downstream chip spinning manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, and the demand is average. , so some factories have high inventories. Many manufacturers have a strong intention to sell goods, so chip prices are weak, and downstream chip spinning has a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Editor’s note: The current trading atmosphere in the polyester market is average. The cost of slicing is affected by the decline in upstream raw materials. In the short term, polyester Most of the chip market continues a narrow and weak trend. Although the price of polyester chips is difficult to increase, there is a certain room for growth in cash flow. </p
