I never expected it! PTA is so strong after breaking the curse, and even more “crazy” after the madness!
6000, 6200, 6600, 6800…PTA futures again on August 3 Open high and move high, and break through 6800 points in one fell swoop; rush towards the 7000 mark, and the sense of presence is greatly increased!
In mid-to-late July, PTA futures suddenly gathered and heated up, breaking through 6,000 points. The market is still questioning whether PTA can hold the key position of 6,000 points! Then something unexpected happened suddenly. The popularity of PTA continued, and the futures jumped sharply in consecutive days. 6200, 6600, 6800… passed all the way. By August 3, the main 1809 contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA futures closed strongly at the end of the day. , closing at 6886 yuan/ton, a strong increase of 328 yuan/ton, or 5.0%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day; reaching a new high. Not only is the single-day increase rare in recent years; in just a dozen trading days, it has actually increased by thousands of yuan, which definitely makes the market say it is amazing!
The rise in futures drives up the spot price, and the rise in spot price drives up the futures price. Whatever, the price will rise anyway!
On August 3, PTA spot prices continued to rise strongly and steadily. The mainstream spot and 09 contract quotations were still around a premium of 260. The previous fixed price transaction was 6,950. Yuan/ton self-pickup. Hengli Petrochemical PTA’s East China main port self-cash quotations increased: the internal selling price rose to 6,900 yuan/ton for self-collection at the main port, and the US dollar selling price rose to 880 US dollars/ton. The internal spot price of Yisheng Petrochemical PTA is 6,950 yuan/ton. The external selling price has risen to US$895/ton.
When it comes to the strong rise in the PTA futures spot market this time, it is naturally inseparable from the cost factor.
I won’t say much about international crude oil. After all, it did not produce obvious boosting force for this wave of gains; WTI and Brent oil in July had Cumulative declines during the month were 7.3% and 6.5%. The key point to mention is the upstream raw material PX. Affected by multiple favorable factors such as its own tight supply and the sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the price of PX has definitely increased by leaps and bounds in mid-to-late July. It has soared and has now reached a new high since 2014. . As of August 2, the closing price of PX in Asia was 1079.5-1081.5 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1098.5-1100.5 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Next, The key point to hit on the blackboard is that PTA supply and demand are boosted by price increases.
In terms of supply, as the author mentioned in the previous article, although the peak period for domestic PTA device maintenance has passed, judging from the PTA operating rate, the current market average The operating rate is at 78.6%, the effective operating rate is at 85.6%, and market supply is still lower than expected. In addition, it is reported that in addition to Hengli Petrochemical No. 1 2.2 million tons PTA production line, which will be shut down for maintenance on time on August 1, the maintenance time is expected to be about 15 days. The market also revealed that a 2.2 million-ton PTA unit in East China may be shut down on the weekend for some reason and is currently under investigation. This news has boosted market confidence.
As for downstream polyester demand, we all know that the polyester market has always maintained a high operating rate, supported by the continued improvement in market conditions. According to statistics, the overall load of the polyester market has recently been concentrated at 90.8%, and the effective operating rate is 95.3%, ensuring stable consumption of PTA raw material demand and supporting the continued decline of PTA social inventory.
Some market participants predict that the load of polyester equipment will still be operating at a high level in the next 3-4 months. Calculated based on the total polyester production capacity of 51.22 million tons/year, the consumption of PTA is 3.5 million to 3.6 million tons/month, plus the 120,000 tons/month consumed in other fields; it is expected that in the next 3 to 4 months, the average monthly consumption of PTA will be 3.6 million —3.7 million tons. Judging from the current operation of the PTA device, the supply limit is 3.6 million tons/month. If there is no other capacity release, the PTA supply will have an average gap of 100,000 tons/month. PTA may still be in the process of mild destocking in the late third quarter. .
The most romantic thing I can think of,
It will rise and rise with you!
In the carnival of the polyester industry chain, the one that can keep pace with PTA and surge forward is naturally polyester filament!
Polyester manufacturers must always be aware of market fluctuations. Especially now that the price of PTA has increased so significantly, the profit compression caused by the polyester market is extremely obvious, and it has also caused a headache for polyester manufacturers. The polyester filament market can only follow closely behind and continue to rise unwaveringly!
Nowadays, the market is speculating on when such a magical PTA will end. Is the trend coming to an end? Although there are too many uncertain factors, the real-time situation is difficult to easily define. But from the fundamentals that can be seen at present, the absolute social inventory of PTA is at a historical low (about 700,000 tons) for the same period, and the supply and demand side are good. Support, the destocking state may be maintained in the short term; it is initially expected that the spot price of PTA may be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and of course a normal correction after the high is not ruled out.</p
