In the past two days, there has been more news in the circle of friends about the price increase of polyester filament. On the 9th, the Rongsheng section rose by 50-100; the Huaru section rose by 50; Sanfangxiang POY rose by 50-150… The average production and sales of polyester yarn factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were around 120-130%. On the 10th, some manufacturers continued to raise prices, mainly POY and DTY products.
For this reason, the editor specifically reviewed and found that since the “resurgence” of polyester filament in early June, the small and gradual rise has continued for more than a month, and the later trend is still optimistic. As of June 2018, the average market price of polyester filament POY was around 9,000 yuan/ton, while the average market price of polyester filament POY in 2017 was 7,500 yuan/ton, which was an increase of about 1,500 yuan/ton compared to 2017. !
It can be seen that in the first half of this year, polyester filament has fully demonstrated the high market prosperity. What’s even more rare is that not only does the chain remain intact during the off-season, but it actually starts a “small motor” of price increases!
Raw materials continue to strengthen, and cost support is strong!
Since hitting a three-and-a-half-year high, U.S. WTI crude oil has continued to fluctuate at high levels. Affected by the early surge in crude oil and the continued depreciation of the RMB, the current domestic spot price of PTA is firm, with transaction negotiations in the range of 5,990-6,025 yuan/ton.
The PTA futures market performed equally well. On the 9th, the main contract rose strongly and closed at 5,936 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan or 0.44%, and the price hit a new high in the middle of the year! On the 10th, the main contract 1809 continued to be stronger and higher.
Since the middle of last year, PTA futures prices have been rising. Although there have been some shocks, the price has risen from 4,700 yuan/ton to around 5,900 yuan/ton within a year. Industry analysts believe that rising costs such as crude oil have played a positive role in pushing up PTA. In addition, PTA’s fundamentals are still good. This good supply and demand pattern makes PTA easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term!
The ethylene glycol market is still in a state of destocking, but with Zhenhai Refinery, Far East United Petrochemical and other units feeding normally, domestic ethylene glycol Alcohol supply is gradually recovering. In the process of forward supply and demand conversion, traders are obviously bearish at high levels, but in the short term, affected by the sharp depreciation of the RMB, it is estimated that the price of ethylene glycol is mainly strong!
Inventory has plummeted, and some marketable specifications are in short supply!
In addition to strong cost support, the polyester filament market has been able to rise without scruples recently, largely relying on the support of its own low inventory. It is reported that thanks to several increases in production and sales, polyester factory inventory levels have generally declined, and some marketable specifications are even in tight supply.
The categories are obviously differentiated, especially POY. Due to the hot purchasing in downstream markets such as Haining Pingping and other places, the inventory is cleared quickly, and some manufacturers are even not willing to ship. The increase during the week is 50-50. Ranging from 250 yuan. DTY and FDY are relatively stable, with manufacturers increasing their prices by around 50-100 yuan.
From the statistical data, the current overall polyester market inventory is around 3-12 days, of which POY inventory is around 2-6 days, FDY inventory is around 2-5 days, and DTY inventory is concentrated around 2-6 days. About 11-19 days. Supported by low inventories, polyester manufacturers are more flexible in controlling prices. Coupled with the pressure brought by costs, the intention to raise prices in the short term will definitely be stronger.
Polyester filament: the price increase depends entirely on your own strength!
Once upon a time, the price increase of polyester filament was almost inseparable from the boost of the “dongfeng” news: unexpected shutdown of PTA equipment, US air strikes on Syria, skyrocketing PTA futures, and electronic trading of ethylene glycol. Price limit…especially for POY products, as soon as the alliance meeting is held, the price will increase on the same day or the next day.
However, we will find that the polyester market is “hot” and the downstream stocking mood has been stimulated. However, the increase in production and sales is mostly short-lived, and most of the market prices that exceed 100 can only last “one day”. “tour” or “several days tour”.
However, the recent polyester filament market is indeed extraordinary!
First of all, this node is currently in the off-season, and the market mentality has not tightened as a result; secondly, in the absence of major news and favorable factors, and the lack of sudden speculation events, this wave of The wave of price increases has been silent, and its sustainability has exceeded expectations! It can be seen that the “counterattack” of polyester filament in the off-season this time depends entirely on the strength of its fundamentals! </p
