The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer. Starting this week, the textile market has officially entered the final stage. Taking Jiangsu and Zhejiang as an example, weaving, printing and dyeing companies have taken holidays one after another, and the operating rate has dropped from 60% to about 30%. Looking at the past 2017 and the unpredictable situation in 2018, textile people are really mixed. I am happy that the Year of the Rooster will bring “full harvests”, but I am worried that the Year of the Dog will bring “a long road to money”.
After the Spring Festival, it can be said to be the “empty window period” for the market, and it can also be said to lay the foundation for the overall development of the market. It is a “sensitive period” on a year-to-year basis, so what are the highlights worth paying attention to?
Point 1: Will raw materials really rise sharply after the Spring Festival?
To stock up or not to stock up? This has become a problem that bothers Boss Bu every time before the Spring Festival. In 2017, the prices of chemical fiber raw materials have just gone up. In particular, from June to August, the price of nylon, viscose, island yarn, and composite yarn has increased. All kinds of raw materials have experienced price increases in the off-season. “Will The off-season has become the peak season.” So the question is, high costs are a fait accompli. Will polyester filament prices continue to rise after the Spring Festival? meeting!
At present, upstream costs still provide support for polyester filament. PTA spot inventory is still at a low level and is highly resilient in the short term. MEG tank area inventory is tight, so it is expected to fall after the holiday. Not likely. From a profit perspective, polyester filament yarns are not ready for shipment in the early stage, and prices have been lowered one after another. The profit margins have shrunk significantly. Some varieties are even on the verge of profit and loss. There is not much room for price reduction after the holiday.
Point 2: Can the popularity of the lining market continue after the madness?
In January, as the temperature dropped, the sales of down jackets, cotton jackets and other cold-proof clothing increased sharply, which drove clothing manufacturers to be enthusiastic about replenishing cold-proof fabrics, and conventional lining fabrics The market has once again entered a “crazy” situation. Conventional chemical fiber fabrics, led by polyester taffeta, have significantly increased their volume. The market supply of some specifications is tight. Weaving manufacturers said that inventories are low, and most buyers queue up to get the goods. So, many downstream traders speculate that the prices of these conventional fabrics will rise after the Spring Festival? meeting!
Nowadays, low inventory has become a symbol of many weaving manufacturers. Entering February, although orders from downstream garment factory traders have slowed down, manufacturers generally do not have much supply on hand. Coupled with the pressure of environmental protection rectification, few water-jet looms were shut down and eliminated in the early stage, and workers are expected to return to work after the Spring Festival. It is later than previous years, and there is a high possibility of insufficient supply of conventional chemical fiber fabrics in the market. According to the sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, many bosses are generally optimistic about the market situation after the Spring Festival. At least the market will not be bad in the first half of the year, and the price of most gray fabrics is more likely to rise.
Point 3: Environmental protection will be strictly investigated for three years. Will there be fewer water-jet looms?
The 2018 National Environmental Protection Work Conference was held in Beijing from February 2nd to 3rd. During the meeting, it was revealed that the country will formulate a three-year operational plan to win the battle to defend the blue sky. , the key governance areas are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Fenwei Plain. This means that environmental protection will still be a high-pressure period in the next three years, and the construction of ecological civilization will not stop. The goals of reducing overcapacity, pollution, and low-end processes remain unchanged. In this scenario, product prices throughout the industry chain will definitely remain strong.
Many market participants are confused about the restrictive policies on environmentally friendly high-pressure and water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. , has laid the foundation for the reality that the number of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is decreasing! So, with the huge advantage of land cost and the gradual improvement of supporting facilities, will Anhui or northern Jiangsu become another “blessed land”? meeting!
In fact, since 2015, new water-jet loom factories have sprung up in northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi and other places. The second-hand water-jet looms eliminated this time have entered these areas on a large scale, and the production capacity of some companies is even doubling. For example, Mr. Xu, who owns 300 water-jet looms in Jiaxing, chose to put into production more than 700 water-jet looms in Anhui to continue his textile career. Moreover, this phenomenon is not an exception. Therefore, the domestic water-jet looms did not decline in 2018. The probability of rising back is very high.
In short, no matter which direction the market will go after the Spring Festival in 2018, will the above three points of view be one by one? Validation, it’s always good to roll up your sleeves and cheer! Textile friends, happiness comes from hard work!
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