The international situation in 2023 will be complex and changeable, with more challenges than opportunities, greater uncertainty, and a slow recovery of the global economy. Economic growth has slowed in many countries, including Vietnam’s major trading partners. Official data released by the Vietnam National Statistics Office (GSO) shows that Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2023 will be 5.05%.
“While this year’s growth is lower than the government’s target of 6.5%, it is still a positive result, making Vietnam one of the fastest-growing economies in the region and the world,” said the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam, an international credit rating agency. Fitch also made optimistic forecasts for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025 of 6.3% and 7.0%.
At the same time, Vietnam still achieved good results in foreign trade and foreign investment in 2023. Among them, Vietnam’s goods trade surplus in 2023 was US$28 billion, a record high; it attracted more than US$36.6 billion in foreign direct investment, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%.
Foreign companies boost
Vietnam trade growth
The official website of Vietnam News Agency quoted statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam on January 2 as saying that in 2023, Vietnam’s imports and exports of goods reached US$683 billion, with a trade surplus of US$28 billion. This is the largest trade surplus on record and the eighth consecutive year of trade surplus. surplus.
Among them, exports were US$355.5 billion, with 35 categories of products exceeding US$1 billion, accounting for 93.6%, and 7 categories of products exceeding US$10 billion, accounting for 66%. In 2023, Vietnam’s merchandise exports fell by 4.4% year-on-year (US$371.3 billion in 2022), failing to achieve the planned growth target of 6%. Among them, exports from the domestic economic sector were US$95.55 billion, accounting for 26.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; exports by foreign-invested enterprises ( (including crude oil) was US$259.95 billion, accounting for 73.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, showing that Vietnam’s exports are still highly dependent on foreign countries.
According to reports, Vietnam has now become one of the top 20 economies in the world in terms of trade volume. Foreign-funded enterprises have made significant contributions, and a large amount of capital has flowed into the manufacturing sector, playing an important role in increasing exports, creating jobs, and building pillar industries (electronics, machinery, etc.). Promote Vietnam’s economic growth. Data show that in some product categories with large export volumes, foreign-invested enterprises account for as high as 99% of exports, such as mobile phones 99.6%. In addition, computers 98%, machinery 93%, and textiles more than 60%.
Attract in 2023
Direct investment exceeded US$36.6 billion
According to statistics from the Foreign Investment Agency of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, as of December 20, 2023, Vietnam has attracted more than US$36.6 billion in foreign direct investment, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%. Among them, there were 3,188 newly signed and registered projects, a year-on-year increase of 56.6%; the investment in newly signed projects was nearly US$20.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%. In addition, there will be 1,262 additional investment projects in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14%; additional investment will exceed US$7.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%.
Among the 111 countries and regions investing in Vietnam, Singapore ranked first with US$6.8 billion, accounting for 18.6% of Vietnam’s total foreign investment, and a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; Japan ranked second (invested US$6.57 billion, accounting for 17.9%). %, an increase of 37.3%), Hong Kong, China, Mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan, China ranked third to sixth respectively.
Foreign capital mainly flows into provinces and cities that have advantages in attracting foreign capital, such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Bac Giang, Taiping, Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Nghe An, Binh Duong and Dong Nai. The newly signed investment projects and total foreign investment in the above 10 provinces and cities were respectively Accounting for 78.6% and 74.4% of the country.
In 2023, foreign investment will cover 18 of the 21 national economic industries, of which the processing and manufacturing industry leads the way with US$23.5 billion, accounting for 64.2% of the country’s registered foreign capital, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%; the real estate industry ranks second, attracting US$4.67 billion in foreign investment. , accounting for 12.7% of the country’s registered foreign capital, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; the power generation, transmission and distribution and financial industries ranked third and fourth respectively.
High expectations for economic recovery in 2024
According to the latest macroeconomic operation data of Vietnam in 2023 released by the General Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam, the GDP growth rate for the whole year is expected to reach 5.05%. Vietnam’s economy grew by approximately 6.72% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, higher than the growth rate in the first three quarters and the 5.92% growth rate in the same period last year.
At current prices, the GDP in 2023 is expected to be VND10.2 trillion (approximately US$430 billion); per capita GDP is expected to reach VND101.9 million (approximately US$4,284), an increase of US$160 over the previous year.
Looking forward, the international credit rating agency Fitch made optimistic forecasts of Vietnam’s economic growth of 6.3% and 7.0% in 2024 and 2025, believing that Vietnam’s domestic fiscal and monetary policies have provided strong support for economic growth. The Asian Development Bank’s “Asian Development Outlook” report predicts that Vietnam’s economic growth rate is expected to remain at 6% in 2024. The International Monetary Fund predicts that it can reach 5.8%, ranking 20th in the world.
The Sixth Session of the 15th National Congress of Vietnam passed the “2024 Economic and Social Development Plan Resolution”, setting a GDP growth target of 6% to 6.5%, and an average CPI growth rate of 4% to 4.5%. Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment believes that exports will regain growth momentum by the end of 2023, consumption growth will be close to double digits, public, foreign and private investment will also grow, and investments in emerging fields such as renewable energy and semiconductor chips will send good signals. In 2024, the three major driving forces of investment, exports and consumption are all expected to achieve significant growth.
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