Recently, the prices of the three major cotton spinning raw materials and pure spinning yarns have all declined weakly, among which the price of viscose yarn has dropped significantly; while the inventory of pure cotton yarn and rayon yarn in the three major pure spinning yarns is around 20 days, while the inventory of pure polyester yarn has not reached 20 days. high. Judging from the profits of the three major pure spinning yarns, pure polyester yarn has the best profit, followed by rayon yarn, and pure cotton yarn has poor profits.
In the past two months, the pure cotton yarn market has been weakly dominated, and the focus of transactions has continued to shift downwards. Rayon yarn has also shown a similar situation; while pure polyester yarn has performed better than pure cotton yarn and rayon yarn. Below, the author compares the prices, inventory and profit status of the three major raw materials and yarns.
From late October to the present, the price of viscose shorts has continued to fall; the price of cotton has been weak; while the price of polyester shorts has continued to rise. From mid-May to November 21, the price of polyester shorts has increased by 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.8%, while in late November, the price of polyester shorts has continued to rise. Prices also began to decline weakly. Driven by raw materials, the prices of the three major pure spinning yarns have also declined weakly recently. The following figure shows the price trends of the three, which are in sync with the raw materials.
Judging from the finished product inventories of the three major textile companies, inventories are currently increasing, but polyester yarn inventories are not high.
As can be seen from the above figure, the inventory of rayon yarn and pure cotton yarn has been accumulating since November, and is currently more than 20 days old; while the polyester yarn inventory has been fluctuating downwards since mid-May, and is currently only less than a week old, at the level of 2015 So far on the low side. Judging from the profits of the three pure spinning yarns, pure polyester yarn currently has the best profit, followed by rayon yarn, while pure cotton yarn has poor profits and is in a state of loss. Of course, if calculated based on the cost of reserve cotton, C32S still has a certain profit margin. However, Xinmian’s accounting is basically at a loss.
Although the profit margins of rayon yarn and pure polyester yarn have narrowed to a certain extent recently, they are still within the profit range. The current spot theoretical calculations based on CY R30 and CY T32 are 180 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Although the loss range of CY C32S has improved, it is still at a slight loss. It can be seen from the prices of the three major raw materials, the prices of the three major pure spinning yarns, and the inventories and profits of textile companies that the polyester industry chain is operating better than cotton and viscose.
Summary: Recently, the prices of the three major cotton spinning raw materials and pure spinning yarns have all declined weakly, among which the price of viscose yarn has dropped significantly; while the inventory of pure cotton yarn and rayon yarn among the three major pure spinning yarns is around 20 days, while the pure polyester yarn Inventory is not high. Judging from the profits of the three major pure spinning yarns, pure polyester yarn has the best profit, followed by rayon yarn, and pure cotton yarn has poor profits. Although the substitution between the three major cotton spinning raw materials is not obvious at present, the substitution relationship may gradually emerge next year, mainly in the substitution between cotton and viscose. Next year, more than 1 million tons of sticky cotton production capacity will be released, and output will increase significantly. However, the growth rate of downstream demand is expected to be less than the growth rate of output, so the price of sticky cotton is likely to fall under pressure, and the competition between sticky cotton and cotton may start again.
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