Introduction: In 2018, my country’s viscose staple fiber planned to add nearly 1 million tons of new production capacity. Since the second half of 2016, the phenomenon of production adjustment and conversion of rayon yarn has suppressed the demand for viscose staple fiber to a certain extent. Furthermore, new cotton with high quality and stable price may guarantee orders, and the price difference with viscose staple fiber may also widen. Finally, high financing and energy costs have made rayon yarn and downstream industries tight on funds. This phenomenon will restrict the industry’s demand for large quantities of yarn and viscose stockings before the year.
Orders for rayon yarn have been sluggish since September, and prices in some areas have begun to loosen. The decline became more obvious in October. As of the close, rayon yarn R30S in Peixian County fell by 2.8% year-on-year, while raw material viscose staple fiber fell by 3.7% year-on-year. . In addition, the current price of raw material viscose staple fiber is also close to the cost. Although the market feels that there is limited room for continued decline in industry prices, there has been no large-scale demand for it.
The conversion of the rayon yarn industry has suppressed raw material consumption, but it has been unable to significantly increase the profits of conventional plain yarn
Since the second half of 2016, there has been a phenomenon of conversion of human cotton yarn companies, which is more obvious in Fujian. The conversion behavior of the rayon yarn industry has suppressed the consumption of raw material viscose staple fiber to a certain extent, but it is in a state of perfect competition. , but will not strive for pricing power for itself due to reduced supply. In the future, the price of viscose staple fiber will still be used as the basis for buying and negotiating prices for rayon yarn.
There is a large new production capacity for raw material viscose staple fiber
In 2018, viscose staple fiber companies led by Tangshan, Fulida, and Sateri plan to expand capacity. It is estimated that my country’s viscose staple fiber industry plans to add nearly 1 million tons/year of new production capacity in 2018, and a substantial release of industry production capacity is expected. It has reduced traders’ speculative demand for large quantities of viscose staple fiber.
New cotton has high quality and stable price, but it may be difficult to highlight the advantages of viscose
The quality of new cotton in 2017/18 was significantly better than that in the same period last year. As of November 27, 2017, among the Xinjiang cotton inspected by the public in 2017/18, there were 1.5851 million tons of “double 28” and above grade cotton, accounting for 51.32%, which is 1.5851 million tons. It was 231,900 tons higher than the same period last year; “Double 29” and above grade cotton was 792,100 tons, accounting for 23.66%, 168,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At present, the remaining inventory of cotton in the state reserve is close to 5 million tons, and it will still not be rotated in or out in the future. In addition, the new cotton production in 2017/18 increased by nearly 400,000 tons year-on-year. Therefore, cotton’s high quality and stable price in 2018 may gain a certain sales advantage among various types of fibers. It is expected that in 2018, the price of cotton higher than that of viscose staple fiber may become the norm.
High financing and energy costs constrain the demand for stocking up before the year
After a wave of adjustments, most industries such as spinning, printing and dyeing have implemented the “coal-to-gas” rectification. However, with the advent of the winter supply guarantee period, domestic natural gas supply is tight and prices have risen. It is understood that a common sizing company in Gaomi The company will need to spend an additional 300,000 yuan per month for this purpose. Furthermore, while the acceptance discount interest rate is high, the funds of yarn enterprises have shrunk after discounting, and it is more difficult to obtain new loans. Finally, after the discount promotions from October to November, the profits of yarn companies and gray fabrics have been significantly compressed, and the overall cash flow of the industry has been tight.
Based on the above factors, although the market still follows the tradition of stocking up yarn and raw materials before the Spring Festival, the stocking volume this time may be reduced due to the above factors.
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