Recently, the profit margin of the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry has gradually narrowed, and the low prices in some markets have approached the cost line. In particular, the continuous sharp rebound in oil has provided confidence to the industry. Some industry players believe that the bottom of the market has gradually become clear, so they have begun to restock. However, except for oil, there are still no obvious positive signals in the market. Coupled with the current constraints of high factory inventory pressure and poor transmission of terminal demand, industry players may still need to be cautious in their operations.
First of all, from the perspective of profit margin, if monthly settlement factors are not taken into account and calculated purely based on spot raw materials, the current profit margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is still around 200 yuan/ton. Compared with other polyester products (polyester filament, polyester bottle flakes etc.) is still relatively high. The downstream cotton spinning industry is in the traditional off-season. Under this background, it is difficult for the market to have room for upward growth.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand, the current inventory level of polyester staple fiber factories is mostly 15-20 days, except for some enterprises that focus on differentiation and export. The downstream product prices are currently in a downward trend, and funds are not abundant. In addition, the market outlook in the off-season is not very clear. Even if the current price of polyester staple fiber has stopped falling and even some companies are calling for an increase, then the overall purchaser will Stocking efforts are also limited, and it is difficult for chemical fiber factories to eliminate inventory quickly.
However, as the date of the OPEC meeting on May 25 approaches, the positive remarks on production cuts will continue to provide support to oil prices. Oil prices are expected to continue a slight rebound, but the rebound is expected to be limited; while PTA still has 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo /year unit is scheduled to be overhauled on May 21, and the processing fee has been low for a long time. There is indeed a need for repairs in the market outlook, but the overall inventory of downstream polyester is high or restricting its growth; although there are expectations for repairs after the sharp decline in ethylene glycol, it is also the same Like PTA, there is a lack of substantial benefits and prices may not rebound significantly.
Therefore, we should not be too optimistic about the cost side. Polyester staple fiber middlemen and various downstream fields will remain quiet for a period of time after replenishment. Therefore, even if the production and sales of the polyester staple fiber market have improved significantly recently, but in the upstream and downstream Without the boost of further good news, the good production and sales situation in the market will be difficult to sustain, and its prices will naturally be difficult to rise.
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