After many dull days, polyester filament manufacturers finally ushered in a hot market yesterday: 300%, 400%, 600%… Factory production and sales “competed for the upper reaches”, and the market was instantly detonated. Yesterday, FDY, POY, and DTY all rose by 50 -100, this morning FDY rose another 50-100, POY rose another 100-150… The prices are rising again. Regarding the current hot market, the polyester filament salesman shouted in the circle of friends: there will be another price increase. , hurry up and stock up! This turbulent market makes the author worry whether it will come and go in a hurry like the “three-day tour” in early March. However, this time there is a gust of wind. How long can this wind blow?
Where is the gust of wind blowing? Top-down, bottom-up or polyester itself
1. The long-term dull market needs a gust of wind
Since the beginning of this year, the polyester market has suffered a “precipitous decline”. The market has been in a state of stagnation for more than two months. Even in early March, the market only lasted a few days. In the context of long-term sluggish production and sales and falling prices, whether it is the weaving end’s doubts about the peak season or the raw material end’s concern about high inventory, the market is in urgent need of a stimulant.
2. Polyester raw materials are “spring breeze blowing”
Recently, the polyester raw material end can be described as a “spring breeze blowing”: international crude oil continues to rebound; on April 1, South Korea’s Ssangyong’s 1 million tons of PX equipment was shut down for 40-45 days for maintenance, which led to an increase in PX prices; while Yisheng’s 3.75 million tons of PTA The equipment is shut down for maintenance. In April, Hengli Petrochemical, Yisheng Petrochemical and other equipment are about to be overhauled. The PTA spot market has also seen a rebound in stress. In addition, the market sentiment on the PTA futures side has turned positive in recent days, ushering in a sudden rise on the 5th. Although the rise is not a “skyrocketing”, the fermentation of various factors has finally made the industry chain finally look forward to this gust of wind.
3. Downstream weaving manufacturers buy raw materials and “take advantage of the situation”
As mentioned above, the weaving end’s doubts about the peak season make the market need stimulants. From the mentality of weaving companies, they also need a rising market to add some atmosphere to the arrival of the peak season. In fact, the market sentiment of buying up rather than buying down has always existed. In addition, the previous article A strange phenomenon has emerged during the sharp rise in the market. When raw material prices continue to rise and cloth is cheap and profits are meager, some weaving companies have found a profitable trade shortcut by pre-judging raw materials and stocking up for reselling. Nowadays, downstream weaving companies And traders are trying to buy at low prices, but has the market increased demand compared with the previous period? This may still be an unknown number, at least the author has not seen the “busy traffic” in the market so far!
Succeed and fail. Has the fundamental situation of polyester filament improved?
As the saying goes, either success or failure is inevitable. In the end, the market will return to the fundamentals of polyester filament. So has there been any change after going through this wave of twists and turns?
After the rapid decline of PTA and MEG in the early stage, the profits of polyester factories have improved significantly. As a result of the substantial increase in profits, polyester factories are operating at full capacity. However, the industrial chain has not been well conducted, resulting in slow sales and inventory accumulation in the polyester yarn market. At present, polyester factories have been operating at a high level of more than 80%. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, even though production and sales reached 350% yesterday, due to the large base and duration issues, the current overall inventory of the polyester market still remains at 16-20%. It has been above the industry average level for half a month.
On the other hand, after the stabilization and rebound of polyester raw materials, will the products of polyester factories still maintain high cash flow? According to monitoring, the current profit of polyester products is still at a high level. According to the data on the 6th, the profit of POY150D is 431 yuan, the profit of FDY 150D is 281 yuan, and the profit of DTY150D is 731 yuan.
It is foreseeable that if the downstream demand is sufficient and polyester raw materials stabilize, it will inevitably drive production and sales to push for inventory reduction, and then the market will continue to take advantage of it to rise. Otherwise, we will not be able to escape the “three-day tour”!
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