Introduction: The market price of PTA has increased recently. As of December 15, the price in East China has increased by 294 yuan/ton to 5,340 yuan/ton compared to the past 7 days. In the early stage, the national epidemic situation was gradually relaxed, and the marginal improvement in demand in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The shrinkage of PTA supply was stronger than the reduction in polyester, which diluted the negative pressure on the market caused by the weakening of crude oil. The intensity of interest rate hikes in the mid-to-late period was reduced, and the continued rebound of crude oil increased costs and Supported by confidence, the absolute price of PTA continues to rebound. The weak atmosphere at the far end still restrains the market rebound, and the basis gradually falls.
Bullish drivers:
The optimization of epidemic prevention and control has become wider, the demand margin has improved, and the weaving load has rebounded; (As of December 15, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving was 49.93%, an increase of 1.03% from last week.)
Polyester production and sales are increasing and destocking continues; (As of December 15, polyester comprehensive weekly average production and sales were 99%, +7 percentage points month-on-month; filament destocking lasted 6.1 days month-on-month to 25.13 days.)
PTA supply and demand are destocked, and the supply shrinkage is greater than the decrease in PET; (As of December 15, China’s PTA social inventory: 2.215 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23,700 tons)
Crude oil insists on cutting production, and the Fed raises interest rates lower than expected as inflation eases; (the Fed’s rate hike in December was reduced to 50 basis points)
The launch of new PTA devices continues to be delayed, and device maintenance increases; (the production cycle of Fuhai and Tongkun devices is lengthened, Sichuan Energy Investment will be shut down during the week, and Xinfengming will reduce its load)
On the whole, there is insufficient expectation that demand will continue to improve in the future. Weaving lacks sustained incremental performance. There is a periodic rigid demand in the downstream to replenish the inventory. Polyester is still aiming to destock. The load decline weakens the support for TA rigid demand, and some companies have entered the closing stage. . As Xinjiang’s supply of goods will flow into the market, William’s equipment load will increase, supply will pick up, and demand support will be weak. The marginal improvement in the industrial chain that is only supported by the easing of epidemic prevention is not sustainable. The increased burden after PX expansion will reduce external dependence. The contradiction between supply and demand in the remote industrial chain is a seasonal decline, but it will still be in line with market expectations. It is expected that PTA will continue its warm trend in the short term, and attention variables will drive the market. In the medium and long term, it will be difficult to get rid of the influence of weak expectations to weak reality.
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