The global energy market is setting off a big storm!
In the first week when the European Union and the Group of Seven imposed a ban on Russian crude oil, Russian crude oil exports seemed to have suffered a major blow. Data from the Global Oil Transport Monitoring website, which tracks maritime vessels through signals and satellite images, show that Russia’s crude oil exports have dropped by nearly 50% since this week. In addition, affected by Turkey’s new regulations, the crude oil transportation market in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean was once in chaos. There are currently 26 oil tankers jammed near the Turkish entrance, carrying more than 23 million barrels of crude oil.
At the same time, a wave of strikes and layoffs is taking place in the United States. On December 8, local time, more than 1,100 employees of the New York Times in the United States began a large-scale strike. It was the first major strike of the New York Times in more than 40 years. In addition, a wave of layoffs is sweeping the U.S. job market. According to statistics from Jinshi, since the end of September, well-known companies in the U.S. Internet industry, technology industry, financial industry, and retail industry have announced layoff plans that have laid off more than 80,000 people.
In addition, the general strike in South Korea is also causing a “fatal blow” to the economy. South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho warned that the prolonged strike will have a fatal blow to the global competitiveness of South Korea’s steel and petrochemical industries. It has seriously disrupted South Korea’s supply chain and caused at least US$2.6 billion (approximately RMB 18.3 billion). economic losses. In response, the South Korean government issued a “mandatory return to work order” to truck drivers in the petrochemical and steel industries on Thursday, requiring truck drivers participating in strikes in these two industries to return to work.
Plumbed 50%, Russia suffered a major blow
On December 7, local time, the “Wall Street Journal” reported that Russian crude oil export data provided by two data providers both experienced significant declines.
Among them, data from commodity analysis company Kpler showed that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports decreased by nearly 500,000 barrels/day on December 6, a 16% decrease from the November average of 3.08 million barrels/day.
In addition, data from TankerTrackers, a global oil transportation monitoring website that tracks maritime vessels through signals and satellite images, shows that Russia’s crude oil exports plummeted by nearly 50%, with the most significant declines in shipments from Black Sea and Baltic Sea ports.
In this regard, TankerTrackers co-founder Samir Madani said that the decline in Russian crude oil exports is obvious and may not be a short-lived fluctuation. The two biggest obstacles are in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, but the Pacific and Arctic regions have not yet affected.
At the same time, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank also predict that Russia’s crude oil production will drop significantly in 2023. The key to reversing the adversity is whether Russia can transport crude oil to the continent without using EU tanker insurance. In buyer’s hands.
It is reported that the “price limit order” of US$60 per barrel set by the European Union, the Group of Seven and Australia for seaborne oil exports to Russia has officially come into effect on December 5.
On December 8, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that Western countries’ setting a price ceiling on Russia’s seaborne oil exports will disrupt the global supply chain and further complicate the situation in the global energy market. Russia will not supply oil to countries that support price limits on Russian oil. Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said earlier in the day that it was too early to assess the impact of Western restrictions on Russian seaborne oil export prices on the budget, and Russia was preparing to take retaliatory measures.
In addition, affected by a new insurance regulation in Turkey, on December 8, Reference News quoted Bloomberg News as reporting that there are currently 26 oil tankers congested near the Turkish entrance, carrying more than 23 million barrels. Crude oil exported from Kazakhstan. The reason is that Türkiye insists that all ships provide new proof of insurance.
It is worth mentioning that the Turkish Strait is the only channel connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. It is known as the “throat of the world” and has a huge impact on global crude oil transportation.
Western officials are in talks with Turkish officials to resolve the issue of oil tanker queues near Turkey, a British Treasury official said.
Separately, the U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary told the Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister on the phone that the Russian oil price cap does not mean additional inspections of ships passing through Turkish waters.
A rare scene in more than 40 years
On December 8, local time, Reuters reported that due to failure to reach an agreement with the company on the contract, more than 1,100 employees of the New York Times in the United States began a large-scale strike on the 8th, which is expected to last 24 hours. This is The New York Times’ first strike in more than 40 years.
At the same time, the “New York Times” also published a report titled “The New York Times Union Begins a One-Day Strike” on the 8th, confirming the news.
According to reports, after the contract between the two parties expired in March 2021, the New York Times Company and the union held about 40 negotiations, but failed to reach an agreement on issues such as wages, employee health, and retirement benefits. Therefore, New York Times�Unions representing more than 1,100 employees in the newsroom, advertising and other departments signed a “24-hour strike” pledge.
In response, the New York Times union said when announcing the strike that the wages proposed by the New York Times Company still cannot meet the current economic situation and lag far behind inflation and the average wage growth rate in the United States.
In response to the large-scale strike, the New York Times Company issued a statement saying that it was disappointing that so many employees took such extreme actions when there was no deadlock.
The massive strike at the New York Times may be just a microcosm of the turmoil in the U.S. job market.
Currently, more and more companies in the United States are experiencing labor movements, including even giant companies such as Amazon, Starbucks, and Apple. Employees are organizing to fight against “unfair labor practices.”
In addition, a wave of layoffs is sweeping the U.S. job market. On December 8, Jinshi Data combined company financial reports and news reports to take stock of the layoffs of some well-known companies in the U.S. Internet industry, technology industry, financial industry, and retail industry since the end of September 2022. It was found that in 69 days, more than 80,000 employees have been laid off. people.
Among them, technology giants such as Amazon, Google, and Facebook have particularly aggressive layoff plans, with planned layoffs of 20,000, 10,000, and 11,000 respectively. In addition, Twitter also launched a layoff plan in November, with the layoff ratio approaching 50%, about 3,700 people.
On December 8, CCTV News reported that the “wave of layoffs” in Silicon Valley has spread to Wall Street. Recently, Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America have announced that they will slow down hiring or lay off employees. According to people familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley laid off about 1,600 people on Tuesday, accounting for about 2% of the total number of employees. The layoffs covered almost all business areas.
“Fatal Blow”
The general strike in South Korea is also causing a “fatal blow” to the economy.
On December 8, local time, the South Korean government officially issued a “mandatory return to work order” to truck drivers in the petrochemical and steel industries, requiring truck drivers who participated in strikes in these two industries to return to work.
According to regulations, once a truck driver violates the “mandatory return to work order”, he may face criminal penalties or be sentenced to up to 3 years in prison or fined up to 30 million won (approximately RMB 162,000).
The background of the “mandatory return to work order” is that South Korean truck drivers launched a nationwide strike to resist the minimum wage plan. As many as 25,000 truck drivers called on the government to make the “safe freight system”, a minimum wage system, permanent. The South Korean government and labor unions have held two negotiations, but no breakthrough has been achieved so far.
In response, South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho warned that large-scale logistics disruptions are causing serious damage to the South Korean economy. A prolonged strike will deal a fatal blow to the global competitiveness of South Korea’s steel and petrochemical industries. The steel industry is already struggling due to typhoon damage in September and slowing global demand, while the petrochemical industry is facing a crisis due to a global supply glut.
According to data from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, the ongoing strike has seriously disrupted South Korea’s supply chain and caused economic losses of at least US$2.6 billion (approximately RMB 18.3 billion).
South Korea’s Ministry of Transport also stated in a statement that in the past two weeks, South Korea’s steel product shipments were only about 48% of normal levels, and some companies have reduced production or even been forced to suspend operations. In addition, South Korea’s petrochemical product shipments were only 20% of normal levels, causing losses of nearly US$1 billion.
Amid a series of “headwinds” such as cooling demand for semiconductors, South Korea’s exports hit their biggest drop in two and a half years in November, while a truckers’ strike exacerbated the country’s trade woes.
Affected by factors such as the strong U.S. dollar and high global commodity prices, South Korea is likely to record its first annual trade deficit this year since the global financial crisis.
Previously, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue had issued an order forcing truck drivers in the cement industry to return to work.
According to the South Korean government, cement delivery volume once fell by more than 90% due to the strike, but has returned to normal levels after the resumption of work order was issued last week.
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