On the morning of March 7, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures opened sharply. Brent crude oil once rose by US$20/barrel, reaching a maximum of US$138.02/barrel, setting a new high since 2008 due to the risk of a Russian oil embargo and the delay of Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
Under this influence, PTA futures opened at the daily limit, and the closing price of 2205 main contract PTA increased by 366 yuan/ton to 6466 yuan/ton from yesterday’s settlement.
A large factory in Tongxiang raised its polyester POY quotation by 200 today
Another major Tongxiang factory raised its polyester yarn quotation by 200-250 yuan today.
The polyester yarn quotation of an FDY factory in Shaoxing was raised by 250 today
A POY factory in Xiaoshan raised its polyester yarn quotation by RMB 200 today
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Cost-driven is still the key reason for the rise of polyester filament market. As an important energy source, the rise in oil prices will inevitably exert a pull on its downstream derivatives, and polyester filament will certainly gain corresponding pull. Since the promotion on February 28, polyester filament has experienced three increases. Specifically, since February 28, POY150D has increased from 8,000 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.88%; DTY150D has increased from 9,600 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.21%; The price rose from 8,425 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.04%.
#Polyester filament data
01Polyester filament production and sales
In terms of production and sales, the mainstream production and sales of sample factories on the 7th were 85.6%, an increase of 46.4% from the previous working day. The production and sales of individual factories were better, reaching 140%, 180%, and 200%.
02Polyester filament stock
In terms of inventory, the current inventory of polyester factories is still at a high level. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 22-26 days. At this time, the inventory level of polyester filament factories is already comparable to that of the same period in 2020. At that time, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, market demand dropped to freezing point and finished product inventory pressure continued to increase.
03 Polyester filament profit
In terms of profits, polyester cash flow began to suffer losses. According to silkdu.com data monitoring, POY is -6 yuan/ton, FDY is -206 yuan/ton, and DTY is 400 yuan/ton. International oil prices continue to hit multi-year highs. Under this influence, the prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have also continued to rise driven by costs. However, the focus of polyester filament prices has been dragged down by poor demand and high corporate inventory of finished products. It is much slower than the rising rate of costs, so current cash flow losses are serious.
The upstream and downstream derailment is only temporary
Crude oil has surged as tensions between Russia and Ukraine have recently escalated, raising concerns about oil supply shortages. However, the cost side obviously has little effect on polyester filament. Especially in February, polyester manufacturers still carried out multiple promotions. The relationship between upstream and downstream seems to be not very harmonious at present, and even derailed. This derailment is actually due to the lag in transmission from upstream to downstream, especially when polyester filament inventory is high and downstream orders are lacking. Due to the hysteresis of upstream and downstream transmission, polyester filament will not rise significantly in the short term. Especially when sales are poor and inventory is high, polyester factories generally will not radically and rashly increase product prices, because once the price of polyester filament is as outrageous as crude oil, it is likely to trigger a stronger resistance from the downstream and thus The gain outweighs the loss.
Positive macroeconomic conditions boost downstream confidence
However, crude oil has risen by more than 10%. This news still has a huge shock to the market, and downstream is no exception. But the downstream impact is more on the psychological level. Stimulated by favorable macroeconomic conditions, the overall market atmosphere has turned positive, and market confidence has also increased. At the same time, downstream weaving enterprises are also gradually recovering. The increase in operating rates will also increase the demand for polyester yarn. Coupled with the continuous appreciation of the RMB, foreign trade has an export advantage, so there is obviously room for polyester yarn prices to rise.
The price increase of gray fabrics has a negative impact on the price of polyester yarn.
Last year, “buying up” failed, and weaving companies were more likely to buy at dips. However, the editor found that the days when production and sales exceeded 100 from February to now were the days when polyester factories generally increased. Therefore, we can infer that the mentality of “buying up but not buying down” among weaving manufacturers has returned this year. Although downstream weaving companies are still not very enthusiastic about purchasing polyester filament, as the price of polyester filament rises, weaving bosses have also begun to tentatively increase the price of gray fabrics. If the price of downstream gray fabrics is successfully raised, it will have a positive reaction to the increase in polyester yarn prices.
Generally speaking, currently in the peripheralIn the exciting atmosphere, the PTA industry chain pushed up, and downstream polyester products continued to rise. But we should also see that most of the current increases are driven by the upstream. When downstream products fail to effectively improve, the emergence of a hot-up situation and a cold-down situation will release the adjustment pressure of polyester raw materials at any time.
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