Inventory·The most valuable hot spots of the week
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The cost end is at a high level. Polyester filament prices have been raised twice in a row, workers’ wages have been raised by 1,000 yuan, and the factory resumption rate has reached 80%…
Let’s take a look at what’s new this week!
Cost is at a high level
From February 1 to the close of February 7, the price of Brent crude oil rose from US$89.32 per barrel to US$92.95, an increase of 4.1%, and the price of US crude oil rose from US$88.34 per barrel to US$91.62, an increase of 3.7%. Oil prices are currently fluctuating widely, and the strong seven-week rebound has cooled down; Brent crude oil futures have fluctuated sharply, after rising for seven consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level since 2014. The surge in prices is also due to tight supply in the oil market.
In addition, geopolitical tensions are also an important reason for the firmness of oil prices. Recent geopolitical risks are difficult to eliminate and will continue to play an role in oil prices. In addition, from the perspective of supply-side fundamentals, the difficulty of oil-producing countries OPEC+ increasing production is also one of the reasons for the rise in oil prices.
Driven by international oil prices, polyester raw materials have also had a good start since the market opened.
In terms of PTA futures, as of 15:00 on February 7, the main closing price of PTA futures was 580 points, an increase of 342 points or 6.24% from the previous trading day.
In terms of ethylene glycol futures, as of 15:00 on February 7, the main closing price of ethylene glycol futures was 5533 points, an increase of 96 points or 1.77% from the previous trading day.
However, as oil prices continue to rise, the United States has relaxed its sanctions on Iran. In order to curb the current high oil prices, releasing Iranian crude oil has become an important way to suppress crude oil prices. Oil prices have fallen by more than 2% since the 8th from a nearly seven-year high, which has brought about downward adjustments in futures prices such as PTA and MEG. The changes in the situation have caused short-term fluctuations in futures, which is normal. Although it has affected market sentiment, the market is still concerned. There are more bullish signals. In addition, Saudi Arabia is also raising oil prices, and due to various factors such as the closure of an oil refinery in the United States, short-term oil prices will continue to fluctuate.
The editor has something to say: In the short term, unless the situation changes significantly, crude oil volatility will still exist, and the decline in polyester raw materials may not come soon.
Polyester filament prices were raised twice in a row
It has only been three days since the start of the new year in the textile market, but the polyester market has already had two price adjustments. On February 7, before the market opened, polyester prices generally rose by 100-200 yuan/ton. Then in February On the 8th, it rose again by 50-100 yuan/ton.
During the Spring Festival, with the strong rise in international crude oil prices, PTA received strong support. It can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday, the price of PTA increased by 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.6%. On February 8, the textile market opened the new year. After that, as crude oil fell, PTA prices fell for two consecutive days.
In the past two days, polyester production and sales have only remained at about 10% to 40%, and price increases have not been able to stimulate downstream consumption. According to market visits, it was found that many manufacturers had stocked up on raw materials as early as a year ago. The inventory of raw materials is sufficient and the purchase demand is not high. The raw materials in the hands of these companies are enough to complete the existing orders in their hands.
So for textile companies, what does the rise in raw materials bring? There are two situations. One is that the order mentioned above was received a year ago, and the raw materials were prepared in advance. The increase in polyester prices will naturally not have a great impact on them; but at the same time, some textile companies are due to funds. Or considering the ups and downs of polyester prices and not having a lot of raw material inventory, a textile boss said: “The price of gray fabrics has risen with the raw materials. Now the price of gray fabrics is very unstable, ups and downs, mainly following the cost. In the future, we will still follow the price.” Mainly need to purchase.” For them, facing the increase in polyester prices, they can only guarantee their profits by following the increase.
The editor has something to say: It can be seen that if raw materials rise, the downstream will suffer. If raw materials fall, the downstream will still suffer. Textile bosses are always passive in the face of poor terminal demand. They have just increased prices and the prices of raw materials are on the downward trend. Fortunately, In the short term, as the cost side begins to stabilize again, raw material market prices will mainly remain stable.
Workers’ wages increased by 1,000 yuan
As in previous years, most textile companies in the market chose to officially start production on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, a day full of meaning. However, on this day, few weaving manufacturers in the market officially started work. The actual start-up rate was not high, mainly because of the large number of textile companies. Some workers have not yet arrived.
Therefore, for textile companies, the primary issue now is to solve the problem of recruiting workers. Through the editor’s visit to the human resources market, we found that the biggest gap in the market now is front-line textile technicians, such as skilled security workers, skilled turners, and upper-level workers. Shaft work, heddling, pulling and buckling, etc. According to the person in charge of the human resources market: “A skilled security worker needs to study for at least two years.The apprentice worker couldn’t even touch a wrench. Therefore, the wages of skilled security workers and truck drivers have generally increased. ”
The person in charge of the same textile factory said: “Workers’ wages are raised by several hundred yuan every year, and this year is expected to continue this trend, with an increase of about 500 yuan.” For example, security workers are a position with very high technical requirements. It not only requires skills, but also requires physical strength, and it also works on a 12-hour shift system. The work is not easy. At this time last year, the salary of this position was around 10,000-11,000 yuan/month. According to the recruitment reports seen in this year’s talent market, the salary of a skilled security worker is 12,000-13,000 yuan/month.
The editor has something to say: All in all, the atmosphere of the Spring Festival holiday has not completely dissipated, and it will still take some time for the market to fully return to normal. The increase in workers’ wages is also determined by market conditions.
Factory resumption rate reaches 80%
Most local stores start operations on the eighth day of the first lunar month, and some start operations on the tenth day of the first lunar month. At the same time, many companies are already busy shipping goods. Among the orders currently being shipped, some were placed before the Spring Festival, some were placed during the Spring Festival, and there were even new orders received on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year.
The person in charge of a company with 96 water spray machines said: “Although we did not start work during the Chinese New Year period, we kept in touch with customers during the Spring Festival. We got quotes and placed orders. Even on the first day of the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, we also placed orders.”
As for weaving factories, most of the local factories have not yet started operations. Some started on the 10th day of the lunar month, some started on the 12th day of the lunar month, and some even later. Mainly due to the late return of non-local workers and the fact that many companies are still short of workers, they are currently mainly recruiting workers. However, in addition to the boss’s wishes, the start-up time of the weaving enterprise also mainly depends on the sewage plant. At present, some companies in Wujiang area have started operations on the 10th day of the Lunar New Year, but there are still some factories that have not resumed production because they have not received notification of the resumption of sewage treatment plants. Due to the timely arrival of employees and inconspicuous shortage of workers in overseas weaving factories, some factories have started operations on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, and the production resumption rate on the first day of operation was 70-80%.
The person in charge of a company with 96 water spray machines said: “Our factory is located in northern Jiangsu. It started operation on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year. From now on, the attendance rate of old employees is quite satisfactory. On the first day, 70% to 80% of the factory can be opened.”
The editor has something to say: Behind the good surface performance of the current textile market, there are still many problems. We must remain cautious about whether the market will be prosperous this year.
Outlook
On the whole, although the cost side is in a volatile situation and polyester filament is in a state of high cost and low demand, the factory resumption rate has been good since the market opened, and the order reception situation is acceptable. However, whether there will be a “Red February” in the textile market in the future will have to wait until after the Lantern Festival before the real market recovery can be seen.
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