The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and the market has entered the holiday period. However, the recent fluctuations in the upstream textile industry have not calmed down as the holiday approaches. Instead, they have intensified and are not “peaceful”.
Oil prices rise sharply
Recent geopolitical tensions have intensified international concerns about crude oil supply. OPEC+ is having difficulty achieving its goal of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per month, and demand is currently recovering steadily. For these reasons, crude oil prices continue to rise. Brent crude oil futures exceeded US$90 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and the settlement price of European and American crude oil futures rose to the highest level since October 2014.
As of January 26, U.S. WTI crude oil March futures closed up $1.98 at $87.15/barrel; Brent crude oil March futures closed up $1.48 at $88.53/barrel. However, large fluctuations in the crude oil market, macro factors and geopolitical risks are the most important factors affecting oil price fluctuations now and in the future. Judging from the recent situation, the market has been swinging. Although the United States has announced that it will release crude oil reserves, in the short term, international Oil prices will remain high and volatile.
The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and the market has entered the holiday period. However, the recent fluctuations in the upstream textile industry have not calmed down as the holiday approaches. Instead, they have intensified and are not “peaceful”.
Oil prices rise sharply
Recent geopolitical tensions have intensified international concerns about crude oil supply. OPEC+ is having difficulty achieving its goal of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per month, and demand is currently recovering steadily. For these reasons, crude oil prices continue to rise. Brent crude oil futures exceeded US$90 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and the settlement price of European and American crude oil futures rose to the highest level since October 2014.
As of January 26, U.S. WTI crude oil March futures closed up $1.98 at $87.15/barrel; Brent crude oil March futures closed up $1.48 at $88.53/barrel. However, large fluctuations in the crude oil market, macro factors and geopolitical risks are the most important factors affecting oil price fluctuations now and in the future. Judging from the recent situation, the market has been swinging. Although the United States has announced that it will release crude oil reserves, in the short term, international Oil prices will remain high and volatile.
PTA continues to rise but lacks momentum
The violent rise in crude oil caused by geopolitical risks also led to the rise of PTA. As of January 26, the main PTA futures 2205 closed at 5410 yuan/ton, an increase of 134, or 2.54%. And recently, multiple sets of PTA devices have been restarted, and new devices with a combined capacity of 3.3 million tons will be tested in January. PTA supply will gradually increase. In addition, two sets of PTA units are scheduled to undergo maintenance in February, which will significantly boost the market.
However, with the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream textile companies have stopped work and have a holiday, and procurement demand has also dropped sharply. In the short term, PTA has strengthened due to cost factors. Whether it is the emergence of maintenance and planned production capacity or the violent rebound of crude oil due to international reasons, it has supported the rise in PTA prices. However, the approach of the holidays has also caused a decline in polyester production starts. , the driving force for PTA to continue to rise will be somewhat insufficient.
Polyester “sale” and then promotion
It stands to reason that if the cost continues to rise, the price of polyester yarn will be stable if the price does not rise. However, considering the actual situation, it is the downstream holiday time. If the price is not lowered and promoted at this juncture, it will lead to another inventory shortage. High, the products are naturally produced for the purpose of realizing cash, not to increase production and sales before the Spring Festival. On January 26, polyester factory quotations remained stable, but the actual transaction price dropped by 300-400 yuan. At present, the overall profit of polyester filament is in a strong state. Based on the raw material price on January 25, the profit of 150D FDY is 308 yuan/ton, the profit of 150D POY is 508 yuan/ton, and the profit of 105D DTY is 330 yuan/ton. There is considerable room for manufacturers to conduct a round of promotions to increase production and sales.
In addition to promotions, polyester factories have also entered a period of centralized equipment maintenance. According to incomplete statistics, approximately 4.68 million tons of polyester equipment has already ushered in or will undergo maintenance, and most of them started before the year. At present, the polyester filament load is around 80%, but during the Spring Festival, the equipment maintenance and restart are overlapped, and the effect of relying on maintenance to protect prices may not be obvious in the future. And if the cost side continues to fluctuate and rise after the year, it will be impossible for polyester yarn to drop back to the past.
What the specific market will be like depends on whether market conditions demand orders after the year and whether the foreign trade market can improve significantly. The recent increases in polyester yarns have been driven by the cost side. Textile bosses will still continue to do so after the year. Pay more attention to oil prices and raw material trends!
</p
