A few days before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the market is still wondering when will polyester production and sales return to normal levels? Are you worried that this “bandage” will be stretched out of shape?
Caught off guard, on the last day of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, polyester production and sales received a violent blow! On the 9th, the production and sales of the polyester market exploded, with mainstream production and sales rising sharply to 240-260%, and some higher levels reaching 400% and 500%. Some manufacturers even closed the market directly and were reluctant to sell. On the first day after the holiday, the transaction atmosphere of the polyester filament market was good. Production and sales continued to increase on that day. The production and sales of mainstream polyester factories were concentrated at 200-240%, and the production and sales of some higher manufacturers reached 350% and 400%.
This surge in polyester filament production and sales is not driven by international oil prices or the downstream weaving market. Unexpectedly, it is the boost caused by the surge in raw material PX .
The price of raw material PX has risen sharply, reversing the trend of more than one The decline of the moon!
In the first quarter of this year, PX, a relatively strong raw material, came under pressure and fell in mid-March, and the price of PX began to retreat; especially in mid-to-late April During this period, the center of gravity of PX prices fell directly, profits gradually shrank, and even fell into a loss dilemma.
Cost boost, demand drive… Whatever the reason, on June 7, the price of raw material PX surged sharply, with the Asian PX market closing price at US$859.67/ton. CFR China, US$840.67/ton FOB South Korea, an increase of US$45.67/ton from the previous trading day. On the 10th, PX prices further increased sharply, with the Asian PX market closing at $862/ton FOB South Korea. Driven by price, the PX market finally escaped from the adversity of losses, was able to turn losses into profits, and returned to profitability again.
Both the volume and price of polyester filament yarns have increased, and inventory pressure has been greatly alleviated!
Boosted by the improvement in production and sales of the polyester market, the most intuitive thing is that the inventory pressure of mainstream manufacturers has been relieved. According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has dropped slightly to 12-21 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated at 5-9 days, FDY inventory is around 11-16 days, and DTY inventory is around 11-16 days. The inventory lasts for about 19-25 days.
Of course, the polyester filament market is also inseparable from the rising volume and price. Benefiting from the favorable production and sales, the quotations of mainstream polyester manufacturers have steadily increased for two consecutive trading days, and there are many early discounts. If it is reduced or cancelled, it is common to see an average daily increase of 50-200 yuan/ton.
The raw material PX is in the window period when new equipment is put into production. At the same time, under the influence of its own profit and loss status, there may still be some room for rebound; however, the PTA market can Whether it will follow the rise is full of uncertainty. As for the downstream weaving market, the gray cloth link has entered the stage of inventory accumulation. Due to pressure on inventory accumulation and funds, most raw materials are replenished in the short term and are quite cautious.
First of all, chemicals rose across the board, but PTA The follow-up is still weak!
PX prices rose sharply, and international oil prices also rebounded from lows on the 6th, which relieved the falling chemical futures. On the 10th, chemical futures Futures rose almost across the board. In early trading on the 10th, the main domestic crude oil futures opened more than 4% higher and closed at 434.8 yuan/barrel, up 4.12% throughout the day. PTA futures, the weakest among the early chemical futures, also rebounded sharply by 3.54%, boosted by rising costs; spot prices also rose sharply.
But after a short period of improvement, PTA actually fell again! In the night trading on the 10th, PTA futures entered a low operating state; on the 11th, the main 1909 contract continued to open lower and move lower, closing at 5294 yuan/ton, which was 16 yuan/ton lower than the settlement price on the previous trading day. , a decrease of 0.3%. The decline in futures prices increased on the 12th. The reason, in the final analysis, is that it is difficult for the PTA itself to form favorable supporting momentum.
Although many units in the PTA market have been unexpectedly shut down recently, the time was short and the impact was not significant. Overall, the load of PTA units has basically remained at normal levels; however, there has been little improvement on the demand side. Under the circumstances, it is expected that the PTA market may have accumulated inventory in the short term, and the market will remain weak.Some market participants predict that PTA will accumulate nearly 200,000 tons in June.
Secondly, the weaving orders are not ideal, and the raw materials are mostly short-term replenishment!
In fact, whether polyester production and sales can continue to be at a high level depends on changes in demand at the downstream weaving end. However, judging from the current market, the order receiving situation in the entire Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is not ideal. According to the sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, most traders are currently making orders that can be executed until the end of June at most, and new orders will be placed next. There is resistance, and the vast majority of weaving manufacturers find it difficult to maintain stable production and sales. They usually only ship goods every few days. Compared with the same period last year, sales have dropped significantly. Judging from the types of transactions, there are no hot products in the market, and the transactions are relatively messy. Conventional chemical fiber fabrics such as polyester taffeta, pongee and nylon are all in a state of “missing orders”.
In this environment, the inventory of gray fabrics of weaving manufacturers has increased significantly, entering the inventory accumulation stage, and part of the financial pressure has been placed on the inventory of gray fabrics. Therefore, for the procurement of raw materials, on the one hand, it is due to financial considerations, and on the other hand, the market is unstable. Most of the raw materials are purchased now and used, and there is a lack of speculative purchasing or willingness to stock up.
In general, polyester manufacturers still need to face demand, cost and other influencing factors in the future. Fortunately, in the short term Inventory pressure has not yet become apparent, but a real recovery still requires the cooperation of demand from the downstream weaving end and the end market. </p
