On June 3, PTA futures fell sharply across the board, with the average decline of each contract exceeding 3%. Among them, PTA2003, PTA2004 and other contracts fell below 5,000 points.
Crude oil plummeted, new equipment was put into operation, and PTA faced a major test
On the surface, the most direct factor affecting the “flash crash” of PTA futures is crude oil. Last Friday (May 31), international oil prices fell by more than 4%, and the cumulative decline in a week exceeded 8%. As the raw material at the top of the polyester industry chain, fluctuations in crude oil have always affected the changes in polyester products, and this round of crude oil declines has directly led to the collapse of PTA futures.
On the other hand, Sichuan Shengda’s 1.2 million tons of PTA has increased its load recently. Materials were put in on the 21st of June, products were produced on the 22nd, high-quality products began to be produced on the 25th, and the load reached 80% on June 3rd.
The investment in this device has further reversed the supply and demand relationship between PTA and polyester filament, and the tight balance relationship has been further broken.
PTA futures plummeted, seemingly due to the impact of crude oil and new equipment, but in fact, the hidden dangers had been laid a few months ago.
If you eat alone for a long time, you will inevitably pay the price
If you push the time forward one month, PTA at that time would have been very prosperous.
In the entire polyester industry chain at that time, PX was “no longer popular”, ethylene glycol was “the one who couldn’t be helped”, and polyester filament, even if there were many big guys, could not be supported. Because the terminal weaving market is sluggish, it is “powerless”. Only PTA has tight supply and demand, strong prices, and rising profits, and it looks like a “king.”
But the market is constantly changing, and it has its own adjustment methods. If you “eat alone” for a long time and overdraw future profits, you will always have to pay a price.
The price paid by PTA is that the original tight balance is broken, and the price that should be strong can no longer be Following this, the original “king” also followed the trend. Whenever there is a disturbance in the market, the price of PTA will also move accordingly, and profits will continue to fall.
According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, in just one month from May 3 to June 3, the price of PTA dropped by more than a thousand yuan, and the profit dropped by nearly 1,000 yuan. Thousand dollars.
The last PX who ate “alone” has become cold
Before PTA, the last company in the polyester industry chain to “eat alone” was PX.
In July last year, PX rose without warning, triggering a wave of crazy prices in the polyester industry chain. The price of PTA reached 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester yarn was even higher. After breaking 12,000 yuan, the cloth bosses downstream were complaining, and the initiator of all this was PX.
Indeed, PX manufacturing companies did make a lot of money at that time.
But if you come out to mess around, you always have to pay it back. The crazy market has further strengthened the determination of domestic leading companies to build PX devices.
In March this year, as the Hengli device officially produced PX in large quantities, the price of PX on the market collapsed, and the profit situation also changed from profit to loss.
The house leaked during the continuous rain. There is news that on June 5-6, Hengli 4.5 million Tons/year PX device will start operating at full capacity. At that time, the price of PX in the market may suffer a new round of blows.
Polyester production and sales are insufficient, and weaving has been crazy about “paying off debt” last year
Polyester factories and the weaving side also cannot escape this law.
The example of the polyester factory happened not long ago. Just last week, polyester filament ushered in a four-day production and sales tour. Production and sales were once as high as 300%. Everyone thought that the market was about to turn around? But this is just a routine replenishment of the weaving factory at the end of the month.
As a result, by last Wednesday, polyester production and sales suddenly dropped to 40%. Since then, it has rarely exceeded 50%, and it is even worse than before.
And weavingThis is especially true for the industry. In the first half of last year, due to the transformation of water-jet looms, the “bad cloth” on the market ushered in spring, and the profits of conventional products were actually comparable to some differentiated products.
Driven by profit, many cloth bosses began to seek to expand the production capacity of water-jet looms in peripheral areas. As a result, in the second half of the year, the market declined sharply, and this year’s market can only Use “bleak” to describe it.
The market is overdrawn, and it will inevitably bring depression in the future. This is true for PTA, PX, and polyester and weaving.
At the end of writing, I have to admire the wisdom of our ancestors. China has had a blessing in disguise since ancient times. reason. When a market wave comes, it is right to seize it, but on the other hand, you must also think about the hidden dangers it will bring in the future; similarly, although the current market is deserted and not very prosperous, who dares to say that this Doesn’t it contain opportunities? </p
