Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the China Purchasing Managers Index in May. The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.4%, down 0.7 points from the previous month. percentage points, and the manufacturing industry fell further. The PMI has shown an overall downward trend over the past year, especially in 2019, which continued to fluctuate around 50%.
From the perspective of enterprise size and classification , analyze PMI
From the perspective of enterprise scale, The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and still higher than the critical point; the PMI of medium and small enterprises was 48.8% and 47.8%, down 0.3 and 2.0 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In the past six months, the PMI of large enterprises has been above 50%, indicating that the overall situation of large enterprises is relatively good, while the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises is all below 50%. The market’s “eliminating the small and retaining the large” situation is gradually intensifying.
From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, The production index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.
The production index is above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continues to expand situation. The new orders index is below the critical point, indicating that manufacturing market demand has declined. The raw material inventory index is below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry has narrowed. The employment index is below the critical point, indicating that the employment of manufacturing companies has fallen. The supplier delivery time index is above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing raw material supplier delivery times have accelerated.
We are wondering why business is so difficult and why the products we produce are not available to anyone. When needed, macroeconomic data has actually explained the overall situation of the current manufacturing industry. As far as our current textile industry is concerned, it can be said that it is very consistent with the changes in economic data.
Contact the textile industry for detailed analysis
In terms of enterprise scale, the number of textile enterprises above designated size with an annual revenue of 20 million yuan dropped from more than 22,000 in March 2011 to more than 19,000 at the end of 2018. Large companies are struggling to capture territory, while small companies are struggling to hold on in the cracks.
Changes in the raw material inventory index may be felt best by various large and small weaving factories. According to statistics observed by Silkdu.com, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been maintained at 80-90%, but production and sales are not prosperous, and the inventory has been high for 41-42 days, while the same period last year was about 24 days . Weaving factories are having a hard time, and raw material factories are also affected. The current production and sales of polyester yarns are concentrated at 50-70%, and the overall inventory is 14-22 days old. The persistent inventory has also lowered product prices. Gray fabrics have reached the point where “not seeking profits but seeking not to lose money”, while raw material prices are either fluctuating or declining.
Dyeing factories without inventory pressure are in The other two indices have their own performance. The first is the employee index: According to feedback from dyeing factories in Shengze area, the current overall operating rate of the factory is 50-60%, workers have been taking turns, and the signboards that used to be hung from the beginning to the end of the year have also been removed. . Workers’ incomes have also been greatly affected by the reduction in working hours, but they do not have the courage to leave and find another job due to the bad market conditions. The change in the supplier’s delivery time index is particularly obvious in the production of dyeing factories. In the past, the delivery time could be as short as 15 days or as long as a month or more, but now it is less than a week, and delivery can be done in as fast as 3-4 days. The dyeing factories that firmly hold the right to speak are also worried and burdened to move forward. In this season when dyeing fees should be increased, dyeing fees have dropped uncharacteristically.
The fall in the new order index is a primary issue in all aspects of production, but raw material factories, weaving The source of the decrease in orders from factories and dyeing plants lies in the decrease in orders from traders. According to our visits, the number of traders’ orders has shrunk significantly. In the past, the first half of the year was usually busy for 3-4 months, but this year it was basically 1-2 months. Nowadays, most traders are making samples for customers, and the sample cycle is far longer than the same period last year, and the requirements are extremely high. It is difficult to meet customer needs after repeated proofing and sending samples many times. Orders are pending and delayed, and the entire line The industrial chain seems to have been “suspended” from the source.
Macroeconomic data is not lofty and unreachable And, its response to the textile industry is very accurate. We can actually see the development status and future trends of our textile industry through manufacturing data. Of course the future��The situation may not be very optimistic. We need to calm down and not be arrogant or impetuous, avoid confrontation with large companies, pay attention to innovation and research and development, follow the trend of transformation and upgrading, focus on differentiation and look for the “fish that slip through the net” that others are paying attention to. We may not only fail to will be eliminated, but can still develop and grow with its own special products.
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