Last weekend (May 26), the editor’s circle of friends was flooded with the same message:
Polyester filament manufacturers, which have been declining for 1-2 consecutive months, can no longer hold back in the face of the “continuous falling” market. They take advantage of the end of the month to “waving the flag and shouting”, Sent a price increase signal! This time, the downstream industry has been very “cooperative”, with many weaving manufacturers entering the market to buy goods, and the polyester market production and sales have also exploded as expected:
According to statistics, the overall production and sales of polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rebounded last weekend Obviously, the two-day average estimate is 240%, and the highest manufacturer’s production and sales are 800%!
On the 27th, the overall production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still good. The average market production and sales were estimated to be slightly above 300%, and the highest production and sales were 700%.
In terms of price, on the 26th, the price of polyester filament started to rise steadily and slightly. On the 27th, the early discount range of polyester filament manufacturers narrowed, and the POY and DTY parts of a major factory in Jiangsu increased by 50%. -100 yuan/ton; FDY of a factory in Shaoxing partially increased by 100 yuan/ton…Whether the price of polyester filament will take advantage of the trend to rise next depends on whether upstream products such as crude oil, PTA, and MEG can provide good assistance. But as far as these two days are concerned, there is still hope for polyester filament.
Weaving factories have entered the market to buy goods, and low raw material inventory is the key
This round of production and sales has exceeded many people’s expectations. Many market participants are wondering who gave the impetus to the price increase of polyester filament. Is it possible that a simple price increase notice can trigger a round of price increases? Quotes? The editor wants to say that the right time, place and people are right! Putting aside the ups and downs of upstream polyester filaments, let’s take a look at what role the weaving market played in this price increase?
The key is that the inventory of raw materials in textile mills is relatively low. Polyester filament has opened a downward channel since April. To a large extent, downstream weaving manufacturers are not very enthusiastic about stocking raw materials and have been purchasing on demand. As a result, regardless of whether the raw materials are rising or falling, most downstream purchases are based on their own production. There are no plans to stock up. It can be seen from the sample companies tracked by China Silk City Network that the raw material inventory of weaving manufacturers is currently at a relatively low level, falling to about 7-10 days on average, and falling by nearly 10 days month-on-month.
According to convention, generally weaving manufacturers will store 10-15 days of raw material inventory for turnover, thereby locking in the cost of the order, but This year’s market situation is quite special. After the Qingming Festival, the order performance of the entire textile market was not as good as expected, and the pressure on conventional chemical fiber fabrics to sell in the market began to appear.
In May, this phenomenon became more obvious. The production and sales of large-scale goods, led by polyester taffeta and pongee, began to find it difficult to maintain balance, and market inventories increased, which caused weaving manufacturers to be more cautious in the operation of raw materials. In addition, raw materials have been in a downward trend. Driven by the mentality of buying up and not down, weaving manufacturers mostly meet rigid needs or consume early raw materials, resulting in the current raw material inventory being at a relatively low level.
It is precisely based on this that if the price of raw materials increases, everyone will choose to purchase more or less goods. After all, normal replenishment operations are still needed, but the original plan is concentrated and advanced.
Can the rise in raw materials stimulate the gray fabric market?
“In fact, a slight increase in raw materials is not a bad thing. At least the price of gray fabrics will not drop sharply. Some customers who are waiting and watching may take the opportunity to get the fabrics, which can boost the trading atmosphere of the entire market in the short term. ” said a weaving boss in Wujiang area. Indeed, for the current “frog-boiling” market situation, some external stimulation may be needed to break the deadlock. So, can the weaving market improve in June? The editor wants to say: Difficult!
1. The domestic demand market is weakening, and the response of textile enterprises to receiving orders is mediocre.
We are currently in late May, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Many textile bosses said that orders will be received in mid-June, and there will be no signs of new orders in the future. For manufacturers that only sell market products, there is great pressure due to poor delivery, low-price competition, and shrinking profits. Gray fabric prices have also been in a downward trend. For example, the price of 150D*300D matte Oxford fabric fell from 4 yuan/meter at the beginning of the year to 3.55 yuan/meter.
Boss who set up factories in other places have an even harder time. A textile boss who set up a factory in northern Jiangsu said that he has not received orders for a month. The inventory in the factory is piled up like a mountain, and it is his job to remove inventory to maintain production. The primary condition to consider is whether you can make money or not. Entering June, the market is about to enter the traditional textile off-season, and demand will further weaken.
(The warehouse of a textile factory in other places is full of inventory)
2. Southeast Asia Textile Industry With the rise of the economy, the transfer of foreign trade orders has accelerated.
As China’s demographic dividend disappears, Southeast Asia, led by Vietnam, is gaining momentum. Many international brands are setting up factories overseas or showing signs of shifting orders. “We have always said that terminal demand is decreasing, but this is not actually the case.However, some orders have been transferred. Now some brand owners have set up factories in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam. If the fabrics can be purchased locally, they are purchased locally. After all, conventional low-end products there still have price advantages. “Mr. Yang, a trader in Shengze area, said. Because of this, the life of conventional products is even more difficult.
Current domestic trade Judging from the foreign trade market, the textile market has shown varying degrees of pressure. After all, there is little hope of returning to the original (2018), but everything always has two sides. When conventional products are “increasingly lonely”, there are still many textile Companies rely on the advantages of their own products to “be at ease” in the market.
For example, the Internet celebrity reflective fabric that has become popular on Douyin, the ultra-cost-effective T800 fabric that can replace T400, and the one-meter fabric sold for 85 yuan Camouflage fabrics, down jacket fabrics as thin as cicadas… It can be seen that the more difficult the situation is, the more good opportunities it is for upgrading!
Although this round of rising raw material prices feels like a “bite” in the market. “Fire” has made everyone agitated, but rational textile people also understand that unless there are any emergencies in the market, such as equipment maintenance, a surge in crude oil, a surge in PTA and other big market trends, otherwise the downstream terminals will be relatively weak. , the resistance to the rise of raw materials is still relatively large, but the probability of a sharp decline is also low.
Faced with the current market situation, the inner monologue of the weaving boss is: Dear customers, the raw materials have been losing money for a long time. The decline has stabilized; in terms of gray fabrics, raw materials, labor costs, housing prices have increased, water and electricity prices have increased, environmental protection and safety supervision have continued. It is certainly not easy for us to operate. The profit of gray fabrics is very meager now. Please don’t bargain with us, buy early!</p
