Since May, the textile market has been experiencing a more severe situation than in previous years. Manufacturers’ inventory and financial pressure on the market have oppressed some textile companies. The influence of the weak purchasing sustainability of weaving enterprises and the weak external market news has caused the overall polyester market to enter a deteriorating situation. Inventory remains high due to the impact of sluggish sales, and the production and sales of polyester factories have also declined due to high prices. Performance varies, with shipments being the main focus, and preferential promotions may be further amplified.
In addition, the polyester yarn market has been declining for more than a month. The market price has hit a new low for the year, and polyester production has generally fallen into losses. The recent lack of directional macro guidance and weak fundamentals continue to drag down the polyester industry chain from upstream to downstream.
As far as the recent situation is concerned, the recent polyester manufacturers Production and sales are still tepid. According to statistics, the average weekly production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are concentrated at around 50-80%. Price drops by polyester manufacturers this week are relatively common, with mainstream manufacturers dropping prices by 300-500 yuan/ton during the week.
Exploring the recent pressure on polyester prices, the author believes that the market has faced a lot of pressure recently, and as the cost of the upstream PTA market further collapses, There is still room for subsequent polyester filament products to make up for the decline.
Polyester cost collapse, PTA still encounters great resistance in the market outlook
Last Friday, the United States announced that it would impose an additional 25% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Later this Monday, the USTR official website stated that the $300 billion list has also been at the hearing stage. Affected by the escalating trade friction between China and the United States, the PTA spot market in East China has fallen rapidly and sharply, and the price center of gravity has rapidly dropped. In the case of the overall weakness of the polyester industry chain, the overall situation is easy to fall but difficult to rise. As of the 17th, the quotation in the domestic market was around 6,100-6,200 yuan/ton, and transaction negotiations were around 6,050-6,100 yuan/ton, which was a drop of more than 500 yuan/ton from the previous week.
At present, the processing fee space of PTA futures spot prices has increased. Before this round of sharp decline, PTA’s gross profit per ton was about 2,100 yuan, and now it is more than 1,000 yuan. The processing fees are at a historically high stage and are still relatively high. Moreover, Hengli has opened up the entire industry chain much earlier than expected, and the pressure on PX processing profits will increase; the 1905 contract is about to enter delivery, and centralized maintenance and support from major manufacturers will The positive support for price will also come to an end, and the far-month contract will continue to be dragged down by the negative effects from costs and consumption, with downward shocks.
From a demand perspective, the demand for downstream polyester continues to be light, and recent maintenance has also been concentrated. The spot purchase volume is not large, and there is also great resistance to the rise of PTA .
Product profit margins have recovered, and manufacturers’ inventories have increased, and inventories continue to reduce prices and promote sales. Possible
Three early-stage gold recipients Driven by the peak season of silver, polyester companies are accelerating the destocking process. However, due to the current dilemma of the downstream sales situation and the lack of clear information guidance, although the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is not saturated, with polyester prices falling for many days, the current purchasing mentality of the downstream tends to be extremely rational. Recently, polyester The inventory of various products has shown a clear rebound. According to the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated in 16-24 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated in 8-13 days, and FDY is concentrated in 8-13 days. The inventory is around 14-19 days, while the DTY inventory is around 24-30 days. In the later period, the weaving market will be dominated by buy-and-use, and the inventory of polyester factories will be further tested.
At present, the cost of upstream raw materials continues to decrease. , the polyester filament loss situation has improved. However, the current polyester filament inventory has increased significantly. At the same time, polyester raw materials are expected to continue to decline. On the premise of ensuring profits, this will give polyester filament manufacturers the possibility of further price reduction and promotion in the future.
If downstream demand does not improve, prices will continue to remain weak
The current off-season market situation is further deteriorating, continuing to cause a decline in demand in the polyester market. At present, the weaving operation rate in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is as low as about 70%. In addition, both the downstream weaving and texturing factories themselves are facing inventory pressure, which makes the downstream demand including polyester yarn and polyester chips likely to decline rapidly. In addition, the recent start of production After the rate decreases, polyester yarn inventory increases to a certain extent, which will inevitably lead to continued weakness in polyester yarn prices.
After investigation and analysis by the author, judging from the purchasing behavior of raw materials by weaving enterprises, enterprises still use buy-and-use in current procurement. The current macro market economic conditions have not changed. There has been a significant improvement, and people are also bearish on the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. Compared with previous years, a weak pattern in the off-season has been formed. As this market wave comes to an end, double inventory�The decline will become more obvious in the near future. When the off-season market deepens, the overall sales atmosphere improves in the future, inquiries increase, and the number of orders increases, whether these conditions will continue remains to be further tested by market demand.
Although polyester yarn can still barely gain support due to cost factors, the weak demand will cause a greater drag on the market. Due to the double bullying of cost and demand, overall, it is still very difficult for the polyester yarn market to make big achievements in the near future. At present, it seems that the polyester yarn market is still very likely to suffer from weak shocks and declines.
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