On April 26, with a phone call from Trump (U.S. President Trump called OPEC to demand a price cut), international oil prices stopped the rising momentum of the previous days and fell nearly 3% in a single day. %, which has brought a huge negative impact to the polyester industry, which has just seen signs of stability.
PX: The house leaked and it rained all night long
Since March this year, as the Hengli PX device was officially put into production, the supply and demand balance of PX in the market was broken, and the price of PX (FOB in South Korea) began to fall sharply, from a high of US$1,113/ton on March 6. Points plummeted to a low of $947/ton on April 19. With international oil prices rising steadily, the price of PX fell by US$166/ton in less than a month and a half.
After Trump announced a complete blockade of Iran’s crude oil exports, international oil prices rose sharply, rising in a single day Nearly 3%, the price of PX has also taken advantage of the trend to stabilize. The house leaked and it rained all night, and Trump’s phone call on April 26 broke the PX price that had finally stabilized. On April 26, the single-day price of PX fell by US$24/ton.
Under such circumstances, PX’s profits have also been cut in half. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, since March, PX’s profits have plummeted from a high of more than 200 US dollars/ton to a negative loss. As international oil prices begin to weaken and PTA equipment begins to be overhauled, PX’s weak situation is difficult to change in the short term.
Polyester filament: the ship is late and encounters the first wind
Similar to PX, polyester factories have not been having a good time in recent times. Especially after late April, the price of polyester filament products began to fall.
While production and sales are low, the profits of polyester filament have also been falling again and again. As the price of polyester filament continues to fall, the prices of various polyester filament products have Profits began to plummet.
However, the reduction in prices and profits has not helped polyester manufacturers to ship goods at all.
Because the downstream does not buy silk, after entering mid-April, the production and sales of polyester factories have basically not been good. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, since April 16, the polyester market production and sales have not reached 100%. When it is low, it is 30-50%, and when it is high, it is only 60-80%.
Affected by the sluggish production and sales, polyester factory polyester yarn stocks continue to accumulate. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 15-23 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated in 6-11 days, FDY inventory is around 12-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 12-17 days. Then it will be around 23-29 days.
Terminal weaving: winter has arrived
The price of polyester filament has dropped, will the profits of downstream weaving and fabric companies increase?
This is not the case at all. March and April are the traditional peak seasons for the textile industry, and a large number of orders for spring and summer clothing will be completed during this period. In March this year, the order situation was basically similar to the situation in the previous two years, and the order receiving situation of enterprises was basically good. But in April, the market took a turn for the worse, and market demand suddenly shrank a lot.
It can also be seen from the inventory chart of weaving companies that after entering March, as market orders gradually increased, the number of days of fabric inventory in weaving companies has dropped significantly. However, after entering April, a large number of orders were completed in March, the market returned to calm, and the inventories of weaving companies increased again.
Even in this case, the dyeing fees still have to step in. Recently, due to production safety reasons, dyeing fees have been raised again. However, due to poor market conditions, cloth prices have not been able to rise, and the original meager profits have been compressed by 10%.
Where did the profits go?
PTA: I am immovable
In the polyester industry chain, whether it is PX , MEG or polyester filament have not had a good time recently, but in sharp contrast, PTA has been having a good time recently.
Since March,PX, which is the raw material for PTA, has fallen by more than 170 US dollars/ton (approximately RMB 1,144), while the spot price of PTA has remained fluctuating around 6,550 yuan/ton. No matter how the prices of upstream PX and downstream polyester filament drop, PTA will not move.
As a result, PTA’s profits began to rise sharply in the short term.
Even if profits are about to drop, don’t be afraid, because there is still a big way to repair it. Because the current profit is too high, the PTA device will never operate at 119% if it can operate at 120%, and the scheduled maintenance has been postponed again and again. It would not be a good idea to wait until PTA’s profits drop, then launch the big move of overhaul and increase PTA prices.
Dye companies: a blessing in disguise but a blessing in disguise
At the end of March, due to a serious production safety accident, domestic chemical companies were in a state of panic. News of work stoppages and production suspensions spread rapidly, causing great panic.
However, this is a blessing in disguise. Affected by this, the supply of dye intermediates has been interrupted, and the prices of dye and chemical products have skyrocketed.
According to our understanding, among the most widely used concentrated dyes, dispersed black ETC 300% has increased from 38 yuan/kg to 70 yuan/kg, and S-GL Cuilan has increased from 160 yuan/kg. At 500 yuan/kg, ZBLH blue rose from 100 yuan/kg to 350 yuan/kg, ruby from 30 yuan/kg to 60 yuan/kg, and red from 30 yuan/kg to 60 yuan/kg.
Zhu Chongqing, chairman of Hangmin Co., Ltd., a leading printing and dyeing company, recently publicly stated that the sharp increase in various dye models is due to market speculation.
Some dye companies judge that dye prices will continue to rise in the future, and would rather break the contract and pay liquidated damages than stock up on goods.
Where did the profits go? The profits end up going to the pockets of the big guys with strong bargaining power! </p
