In the afternoon of April 18, PTA futures, which were originally tepid, began to plummet until they fell to the limit.
On April 19, PTA futures continued to fall. As of the close of the day, the main PTA futures closed at 6006 points, down 124 points or 2.02% from the previous trading day
Why did PTA fall rapidly?
What impact will it have on the next market trend?
PX prices plummet
Since March this year, as Hengli PX equipment was officially put into production, PX prices Falling in response. After stabilizing for a period of time, at noon on the 18th, the price of PX dropped sharply again, with the physical transaction price in July as low as US$961/ton.
It is understood that a 1.3 million-ton PX device in South Korea restarted ahead of schedule, causing the supply of PX to exceed market expectations in the short term. This is the most direct reason for the sharp decline in PTA prices in recent days.
(PX prices began to fall sharply)
Polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish
According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, after entering mid-November, the production and sales of polyester factories have dropped significantly compared with the previous stage. Since this week, the production and sales of polyester have continued to maintain At around 50%, it has brought great inventory pressure to polyester factories.
In addition, April and May are the regular time for factory maintenance. In the past, because the production and sales of polyester factories were relatively good, the maintenance time was changed again and again. But at present, it is obvious that silk cannot be sold anymore, and the maintenance of polyester factories is likely to be put back on the agenda.
(Polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish)
The weaving market is under obvious pressure
At present, due to the overall sluggishness of the textile market, the operating rate of looms in the warp knitting market has dropped significantly compared with the previous stage, with a drop of about 10%. In addition to the warp knitting market, although the operating rate of water-jet looms has not declined, it is still suffering.
Because of the difficulty in recruiting workers, many woven companies dare not stop the machines even if they cannot receive orders, because they are afraid that the workers will leave after the machines stop. If the market improves next , it will be impossible to recruit new workers to start the machine. But the problem is that the fabric produced cannot be sold, and we can only watch the inventory accumulate day by day.
What should I do if there is too much inventory? We can only sell goods. At present, many small and medium-sized enterprises in the market have started selling goods on a small scale for the purpose of capital turnover. Once the situation continues to worsen, the price of gray fabrics will fall further.
Dyeing fees have been rising again
On April 17, Keqiao Printing and Dyeing Association issued “About joint boycott of abnormally large prices of dyestuffs” Proposal for rising behavior. The proposal states that dye and chemical material manufacturers are suspected of price monopoly, and believes that the sharp rise in dye prices in the short term is abnormal and inconsistent with market rules.
When facing fabric companies, dyeing factories appear very tough, “rejecting gray fabrics” and “making appointments to carry fabrics” ” I felt that the dyeing factory was the real boss. But every family has its own problems. In addition to the increasingly stringent environmental protection measures in recent years, the rapid rise of dyes is also a problem that needs to be faced head-on.
The rising costs of dyeing factories can only increase dyeing fees. In the end, it is still the fabric companies that bear the pressure. Coupled with the recent sluggishness of the terminal market itself, the increase in printing and dyeing costs may make the already tepid textile market even worse.
Is a new round of weak market coming?
PTA’s current decline is likely to be the beginning of a new round of weak market conditions in the polyester industry chain.
As mentioned above, due to the recent sluggish downstream weaving market and the decline in the operating rate of weaving factories, the production and sales of polyester factories have been hovering around 50% since this week.
As the price of PTA plummets, the price of polyester filament is bound to drop. With the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the sluggish production and sales of polyester will most likely continue. There is a high probability that production will be suspended for maintenance, and the demand for PTA will be further reduced, which is not conducive to the rebound of PTA prices in the future.
In addition, in the short term, terminal weaving has not shown an improvement trend. Even if a certain product suddenly becomes popular in a short period of time, it is basically short-lived and does not affect the overall market. downturn. This has resulted in the overall fundamentals always being a big negative, and the polyester industry chain may fall into a new round of vicious cycle.
</p
