At the beginning of the new year, the domestic polyester industry chain has shaken off the weak trend and started to bottom out and rise in the short term under the support of many favorable conditions such as a good macro outlook and improved supply levels. The market is picking up. International oil prices have risen for eight consecutive years, polyester production and sales have been rising for six consecutive years, and the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain have resonated, creating a wave of enthusiasm at the beginning of the 2019 New Year.
U.S. oil has risen for eight consecutive years, up 24% from the low in December last year %
Since January, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia has taken the lead in cutting production, and the motivation for increasing U.S. shale oil production has weakened. The interests of all parties in the market have been unprecedentedly consistent. Basically, Driven by this trend, crude oil WTI continued to rise strongly to $52.59/barrel after rising above $50/barrel, an increase of 24% from the low in December last year. Crude oil bottomed out and rebounded strongly, sending a strong positive signal to the downstream polyester market, and the polyester industry chain prices actively followed suit.
PX soared above the thousand-yuan mark, rising by US$115/ton in a single week at the beginning of the month
In December, dragged down by the continued weakness of crude oil, the PX market continued to be under pressure. In addition, in December, Hengli Refining and Chemical Integrated Feeding started, and Fuhai Chuang PX resumed production as scheduled. The market is worried about the market of PX in 2019. The market The mood is poor and PX prices continue to fall. After entering January, the price of crude oil rose sharply, giving a strong boost to PX from the perspective of cost. The price of PX rose by US$115 in a single week to US$1,038/ton FOB South Korea. Although PX faces great expectations for domestic production, since the release of new production capacity is mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, the impact on the first half of the year is relatively limited. Therefore, PX can still have strong upward momentum when crude oil rebounds sharply.
A “lucky bag” was airborne upstream, The polyester industry chain received a red envelope
Under the strong push of the crude oil-PX end, polyester The upstream and downstream sectors of the ester industry chain are rejoicing. The spot market performance of polyester raw material PTA futures is strong. Among them, PTA futures exceeded 6,000 points, and the price increased by more than 400 points compared with the beginning of January; although ethylene glycol did not perform as strongly as PTA, under the influence of crude oil, the early weak decline gradually stopped and showed a stabilizing trend. The performance of raw materials is remarkable, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has been stimulated. Polyester production and sales have been booming for 6 consecutive days, and the market trading atmosphere is enthusiastic. The high inventory pressure in the early stage of polyester manufacturers entering maintenance mode has been effectively improved, and the inventory has dropped significantly. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall polyester market inventory is now around 9-17 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated at 6-10 days, FDY inventory is around 10-15 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-15 days. Then it will take about 14-20 days.
Towards the end of the year, although the downstream industry has gradually entered the Spring Festival mode, the frequent favorable market conditions have stimulated the long-suppressed enthusiasm for downstream purchasing, and the market has entered the year-end preparation period. Dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will also enter holiday mode this week. With the suspension of dyeing factories, the weaving fabric market will also be closed. After this wave of market conditions, the high inventory alert in the polyester market has been lifted. As the new year is approaching, polyester filament yarns are also relieved.
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