On the “deadline” of the Iran deal, crude oil broke through the important mark of 70 US dollars, hitting a new high in three and a half years!
It was reported that in January 2018, when US President Trump extended the US sanctions exemption period on the Iranian nuclear issue, he set May 12 as the deadline for revising the agreement. The whole world is waiting for this day to arrive! Given that the current stance of the United States and Iran remains firm, the market’s concerns about the United States re-launching sanctions on Iran are also increasing, which has supported the steady increase in international oil prices from an emotional perspective.
The National Bank of Dubai stated in a report that if the United States imposes sanctions on Iran, global oil supply may be reduced by 800,000 barrels per day. As OPEC and other major oil-producing countries implement the production reduction agreement, global oil prices have risen above US$70 per barrel for the first time since November 2014 due to concerns that the Iranian nuclear issue will cause a reduction in crude oil supply.
WTI crude oil futures exceeded US$70 in the morning, the first time since November 27, 2014, setting a three-and-a-half-year high, and Brent oil also exceeded US$75. Shanghai crude oil futures rose above 460 yuan/barrel, rising more than 3.2% during the day, setting a new high since the listing.
More professionals boldly predict that in the later stage of crude oil operations, the next stage of the bullish rally will be around US$72.7, with each phase As the price rises, the support moves upward, so it is expected to test the important mark of 80 US dollars this year; although the current price of 80 US dollars is still a little far away from the current price, 72.7 US dollars is a point within reach.
With another strong rise in international oil prices, “sharp” polyester The filament market did its part and entered an upward channel again.
Boosted by crude oil, the quotations of mainstream polyester manufacturers last weekend had room for an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton; on Monday (7th), the polyester filament market experienced another rise. , some manufacturers such as Hengli Chemical Fiber, Tiansheng Chemical Fiber, Southeast New Materials and other product quotations are still rising by 50-100 yuan/ton. Although the quotations of some manufacturers have stabilized, many early discounts have been cancelled.
Under the strong boost brought by international oil prices, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have once again experienced a surge; it is said that some “crazy” manufacturers sold 3,000 tons in two hours. According to statistics, the mainstream production and sales of the polyester filament market on the 7th were concentrated around 200-300%, and some better manufacturers were as high as 400% or 500%. Some market participants predict that with a high operating rate of 90%, downstream weaving manufacturers will usher in another wave of procurement and stocking up.
The surge in production and sales in the polyester market has naturally led to a further decline in the inventories of polyester manufacturers; currently, the inventories of mainstream manufacturers have been at their lowest level during the year. The level is relatively low, almost returning to the low inventory state before the Spring Festival. According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, the current overall inventory of the polyester market has dropped to 5-16 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory has dropped to 4-9 days, FDY inventory has dropped to around 3-8 days, while DTY inventory has dropped to around 3-8 days. to about 14-22 days. It is said that some hot-selling products with tight specifications still need to wait in line!
International oil prices rise strongly, polyester filament volume and price With the rise, the polyester raw material market is naturally not to be outdone; PTA futures rose by 1%, and the spot price rose simultaneously!
Driven by the rise in international oil prices, PX prices also rose on the 5th; among them, Asian PX prices rose by US$10.67 to US$970.67/ton FOB South Korea and US$989.67/ton CFR China, and European PX The price rose by US$20 to US$901/ton FOB Rotterdam.
PTA futures closed higher at the end of the day, boosted by the positive news. The main 1809 contract closed at 5,656 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 56 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. is 1.0%. On the spot side, the market conditions are rising simultaneously. It is reported that the quotation in the internal market has risen to around 5590-5640 yuan/ton, and the transaction negotiation has risen to around 5560-5590 yuan/ton.
To sum up, polyester raw materials are still likely to rise in the future. In addition, downstream demand still exists, and chemical fiber manufacturers are at a low level. With the support of inventory, it is expected that the slight increase is likely to continue. </p
