Whenever the Chinese New Year approaches, besides being busy collecting payments, cloth bosses are most concerned about the stocking of raw materials. Will it go up after the holidays? Do you want to stock up now? Some people think: “According to the trend of raw materials rising as soon as they were opened after the holiday last year, whoever arrives in Qiantun will definitely make a lot of money!”
But after all, it is an investment, and there are risks; every time Not all your efforts will be rewarded, and it is possible that if you are not careful, you will lose everything. It was the same last year, but the situation is likely to change this year… So friends who “don’t want to go around in circles for another year and completely go back to before liberation” must read the following article!
First of all, let’s pay attention to the raw material stocking cycle of weaving manufacturers this year. Although most weaving manufacturers are currently on holiday due to weather conditions and the overall market performance is relatively calm, after experiencing the ups and downs of the market in recent years, it does not seem to be the case whether the downstream has really become extremely rational.
From the recent survey results of China Silk City Network, we can see that everyone’s current operating mentality is obviously divided. Although more than 70% of weaving manufacturers maintain a stocking cycle within the conservative range of 15-30 days, another 15% choose to stock goods for more than 2 months! “Having money and being willful” may be one of the reasons. The more important thing is to be optimistic about the market outlook. Instead of waiting for the rice to be cooked, it is better to strike first!
So, is the truth really in the hands of a few people? Will raw materials really increase after the holidays? Here comes the “divine analysis”:
1. Polyester filament has pressure – so it will rise!
Although the market is concerned about excessive U.S. shale oil production, the dollar is weak and gasoline inventories have shown a healthy decline, which has eased the crude oil market’s concerns about demand. Therefore, crude oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Stay high. As for PTA, the current spot inventory is still at a low level, and the PX maintenance season in Asia is approaching. The PX price is still on the strong side, coupled with the support of high crude oil, so the resilience is still strong in the short term. As for MEG, tank farm inventories are still tight and are expected to remain high after the holidays. While the strengthening of the cost side brings pressure, polyester filament naturally has the motivation to increase prices.
2. Polyester filament is not profitable! ——So, it will rise!
In the recent period, due to the intermittent procurement of downstream weaving and texturing manufacturers, polyester filament manufacturers mainly focus on shipments, and prices have been gradually reduced. As a result, the current profit margin of polyester filament has shrunk significantly, and some varieties have even On the edge of profit and loss, the current price for polyester filament should be at a relative bottom, and there is not much room for price decline after the holiday. In addition, some melt direct spinning manufacturers said that under the preferential promotions, some products such as POY75D/72F, 100D/144F, 120D/192F, 150D/288F, etc. have shown strong sales momentum, and the inventory is no longer large, so the current low Clearing inventory may be to prepare for price increases in the coming year!
To sum up, the editor believes that the probability of a “good start” in the implementation of raw materials after the holiday is relatively high. Therefore, it is recommended that at this stage, those with financial strength Weaving companies can start to get some goods, so as not to have to watch others sitting on the inventory while they have no rice to cook…
Of course, some people will ask: The money for the goods is still floating around. What should I do if I don’t have money to stock up on goods?
Here, the editor gives you a tip: read less the market and more newspapers, eat less greasy food and more vegetables, drive less cars and walk more, and pick up less Too many orders and reminders! In this way, you can not only reduce your expenses, but also adapt to Buddhist life in advance…
Just kidding, I wish everyone a prosperous 2018! </p
