According to customs statistics, as of March, my country had imported a total of 374,000 tons of cotton in 2017, an increase of 164,000 tons or 78.1% compared with the same period in 2016 (of which 121,000 tons were imported in March, a year-on-year increase of 109%); 1-3 2017 In March, my country imported a total of 530,200 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. So under the premise that cotton production has increased, cotton imports, and cotton yarn imports have increased significantly, the recovery of my country’s cotton and cotton yarn consumption has to be impressive.
1. The inventory of raw materials and fabrics has “double dropped”, and the industrial chain “buys as you use, order according to the order”
The industrial inventories and commercial inventories of cotton-using enterprises are both at a low level (although the cotton reserves are large, they are not liquid unless they are rotated out). Affected by the rotation of reserve cotton from 2015 to 2017 and the relatively sluggish production and sales situation of small and medium-sized textile and garment enterprises in recent years, not only the use cycle of cotton and other raw materials in spinning mills has been reduced from 45-60 days to 20-30 days, but also the use cycles of weaving enterprises and garment enterprises The reserves of cotton yarn, gray cloth, and fabrics have also continued to decrease, and it is a common phenomenon throughout the entire industry chain to “buy as you use, place orders upon ordering”;
2. Traders “jumped on the news” and textile mills purchased Xinjiang cotton in large quantities
As “reservoirs”, cotton operating companies and cotton yarn traders once again played an important role. Since 2016/17, not only mainland cotton traders and textile mills have entered Xinjiang in large quantities to purchase and operate Xinjiang cotton. Even several foreign businessmen have actively participated. In 2015 and 2016, the cotton reservoir once again fully utilized its capital and resource advantages; similarly, a large number of cotton yarn and gray cloth traders in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong, Henan and other places “acted upon hearing the wind”, and intermediate links A large amount of cotton yarn and gray fabrics are “eaten in” and accumulated. A certain amount of cotton, cotton yarn and gray fabrics are in the hands of traders, waiting for the opportunity to make waves;
3. The export situation has reversed, and the cost of low- and medium-count yarns has declined, resulting in enhanced competitiveness
Downstream domestic and foreign sales orders for gauze, fabrics and clothing have increased, especially the export situation has reversed. According to statistics, in March 2017, my country’s textile and apparel export volume was US$20.017 billion, a month-on-month increase of 82.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 18.78%; the cumulative textile export volume from January to March was US$23.269 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.22%. In addition, as the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar has continued to strengthen sharply in recent months, India’s exports of cotton yarn, textiles and clothing to European and American countries have declined rapidly; while China’s major competitors such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, and Pakistan have experienced imports due to the continued high level of ICE. U.S. cotton, Brazilian cotton, West African cotton, etc. are difficult to reduce. Their domestic labor, energy, tax and other costs have increased, so the competitiveness of textile and apparel exports has also been weakened. In addition, due to the release of cotton reserves, the cost of spinning medium and low-count yarns for textile companies has declined, which has increased bargaining space in terms of export quotations, supply and other aspects, and enhanced competitiveness.
4. The three major varieties of cotton yarn market are generally good, with mixed trends
How is the cotton yarn market recently? It is understood that the cotton yarn market in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin is relatively stable, with small fluctuations in some areas. Among them, the sales of pure cotton yarn have improved slightly, while the sales of blended yarn and pure polyester yarn have been relatively stagnant, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong.
Pure cotton yarn: Sales improved and prices stabilized
On the 4th, the prices of combed cotton yarn 21S, 32S, and 40S of a Shandong textile company were 21,900 yuan/ton, 23,400 yuan/ton, and 24,600 yuan/ton, remaining stable. According to the person in charge of the company, recent orders have continued to be small, short-term, and bulky as in the early stage. However, actual order transactions for individual yarn counts have increased, and product inventories have remained low.
It is understood that the market for conventional pure cotton yarn in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places is relatively good. Among them, the trading volume of pure cotton yarn 32S and 40S has increased significantly. The trading volume of combed cotton yarn 21S has not changed much, and the price has remained at 23,500 yuan/ton. . According to manufacturers, the raw material inventory of enterprises has not been high recently. First, the cost of raw materials continues to rise, and the profit margins of enterprises have declined. Therefore, raw materials are purchased as they are used. Second, the capital chain of most textile enterprises is tight. Except for a few large factories, most There is no capacity to store too many raw materials.
According to analysis, the price of raw materials for pure cotton yarn has recently increased, and the cost has remained high. There has been an increase in demand and orders, and the market may be heating up in the near future.
Blended yarn: price drops slightly, wait and see strong
Recently, the prices of polyester-cotton yarn and polyester-viscose yarn have fallen slightly. On the 4th, the prices of T65/C35 21S and 32S in Shandong, Hebei and other places were 14,400 yuan/ton and 15,400 yuan/ton, remaining stable. However, due to the recent decline in transaction volume, some manufacturers generally offer a discount of 100 yuan/ton for actual orders. According to analysis, the chemical fiber market has fallen slightly recently. The current price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber is 7550-7700 yuan/ton, which is about 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous week. This is also an important reason for the decline in the polyester and cotton yarn market.
The market for polyester and viscose yarn has also fallen recently. On the 4th, the prices of T65/R35 21S and 32S from some manufacturers in Jiangsu were 14,500 yuan/ton and 15,500 yuan/ton, which was about 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous day. Talking about the decline in polyester and viscose yarn prices, many companies have reported that the main reason is that recent orders have been scarce and companies have reduced prices to reduce inventory.
High count yarn: prices rise slightly and orders are stable
Recently, the price of combed and compact cotton yarns of 60S and above has increased slightly, and there are few transactions. Most manufacturers have maintained their old customers because of “make to order”.In line with the “production” strategy, companies do not have much product inventory and most of them maintain low inventories.
Taking 100% long-staple cotton 80S as an example, the current price of manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 57,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. According to analysis, the price increase is due to the recent slight increase in the price of long-staple cotton, which has driven up the price of cotton yarn. On the 4th, the factory price of 137-grade long-staple cotton in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 22,000 yuan/ton, and 237-grade long-staple cotton was 21,000 yuan/ton, both of which were 200 yuan/ton higher than the previous week.
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