Looking back at the polyester filament market after the Spring Festival, after a short “good start”, due to multiple negative factors such as the collapse of upstream raw materials and weak downstream demand, the polyester filament market began to decline. After the market opened after the holiday, Most of the time, there is a “green” above the head. Whether it is FDY, POY or DTY products, the accumulated price dropped by about 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 10%.
However, unexpectedly, after experiencing a sharp decline and several short-term “rebounds”, the “spring” of the polyester filament market finally arrived in April. Since April, not only the polyester filament products have Prices have rebounded, market production and sales are booming, and more importantly, the profits of polyester manufacturers have also continued to improve, showing a rising tide that lifts all boats, and has even approached the profit level of December last year.
It can be clearly seen from the above figure that the profit margins of various polyester filament products have increased significantly in recent times. For example, the profit level of FDY150D has risen sharply to around 872 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 608 yuan/ton, and the year-on-year increase is also around 547 yuan/ton. In addition, the profit of POY150D rose to 972 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of nearly 657 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of nearly a thousand yuan. In addition, the profit of DTY150D rose sharply to 1,270 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of about 480 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of more than 1,000 yuan.
After talking about profits, let’s talk about the company’s product inventory – because the level of inventory determines the “confidence” of polyester manufacturers to increase prices. Behind the boom in the polyester filament market in the second half of last year was the confidence brought by low inventory; after the Qingming Festival, polyester filament manufacturers’ production and sales were booming, with production and sales rates of 300%, 400%, and 600% appearing continuously. Although the mainstream production and sales of silk are not so popular, prices exceeding 100 are still common. It was not until the past two or three trading days that the production and sales of polyester yarn fell slightly.
However, after this round of vigorous destocking, the inventory levels of mainstream polyester manufacturers in the market have been significantly reduced. According to statistics, the current overall inventory of the polyester market has been reduced to around 12-18 days; among which, POY inventory has been reduced to 9-9 At the 14-day level, FDY inventory has dropped to around 12-17 days, while DTY inventory has fallen back to around 20-30 days.
Last year, we described the rhythm of polyester filament as “not open for three years, but open for three years”. The key point is that polyester manufacturers have actually “harvested” profits. In the short term this year, although polyester filament yarn has not been able to “rise, rise, rise” as it did in 2016, the current market pattern of high profits and low inventory makes others envious! It can be said that once the machine rings, there is a thousand taels of gold!
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