Viscose staple fiber has always been said to be a “unbelievable” species among cotton substitutes. Why is it said so because it rises faster than cotton, but it doesn’t give any face when it falls. Today, the editor will talk about the recent trend of viscose staple fiber and the market of downstream rayon yarn.
Since the beginning of the new year, the price increase of viscose staple fiber is expected. Since the beginning of the year, it has been rising to 17,420 yuan/ton! Many market participants were confident, but the situation suddenly changed and the good times did not last long. At the end of February, the market price of viscose staple fiber first increased and then stabilized. The price of viscose staple fiber began to be in a situation where it could neither fall nor rise. , the acceptance rate of downstream yarn mills has been mediocre, and the production and sales of new orders have also begun to be unsatisfactory. In the words of a salesperson from a leading company: It is difficult for prices to rise now, and it is not easy for prices to fall!
However, market trends are often unexpected. After a week of overall price stalemate, viscose staple fiber began to fall in price. Since mid-March, viscose has been falling. By the end of March, the price fell below the 17,000 yuan mark. From now on In the past few days, viscose staple fiber has plummeted. On April 11, it has fallen to the mark of 16,000 yuan/ton. This wave of market conditions has also surprised people in the industry. So at the same time, what is the market for downstream rayon yarn? Woolen cloth?
It is understood that after two waves of stocking before and on the 15th, the inventory of rayon yarn companies decreased. After the Spring Festival, the selling price of sticky shorts increased by 500 yuan/ton cumulatively. However, along with the high prices came a shrinking order. In addition, before the Spring Festival, most domestic rayon yarn companies have already stocked a large amount of low-price viscose stock. Therefore, when orders have slowed down and viscose is still executing contracts, the bidding status of the rayon yarn market has begun to show.
Judging from the closing situation of rayon yarn as of the 11th, it has fallen by more than 1,000 yuan/ton from this year’s peak. Among them, the decline of Siro and Compact Siro spinning was as high as more than 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of rayon yarn bidding The tragic situation also makes it difficult for viscose staple fiber companies to set prices. In order to ensure sales, most companies currently prefer to settle at the end of the month. According to the limited market prices currently known, the price center of the viscose staple fiber market is 1,200 yuan/ton away from the high level. The selling price of some products in the market is already around 1,000 yuan lower than the current mainstream price, and the price is in chaos.
The decline of rayon yarn is faster than that of viscose staple fiber, which makes the market for rayon yarn companies that just need to purchase viscose staple fiber yarns frequently in a state of loss. For example, companies that lack funds before the Spring Festival have tight stocking of viscose staple fiber yarns before the holiday until the end of January and so on. At the end of February, due to the continuous replenishment of raw material marks after the Spring Festival, the cost of raw materials increased to 16,500 yuan/ton or even 17,000 yuan/ton. In this situation, most yarns sold in the current market are priced at 15,500 yuan/ton raw material cost. Behavior, already lacks sales advantage.
In order to reduce operating pressure, some rayon yarn enterprises have chosen to reduce production, switch to production or even shut down production. On the one hand, they reduce the digestion speed of raw materials to prevent continued purchases at current high prices and short-term losses, and on the other hand, they reduce their own inventories. Therefore, judging from the current situation, whether it is a yarn enterprise with sufficient funds before the Spring Festival and purchasing a yarn that can be used until the end of April (some of the yarn will be short after the festival, depending on the market situation), or a rayon yarn enterprise that lacks funds and continues to stock up after the Spring Festival, the yarn will be sticky. The inventory of viscose staple fiber has been basically digested. Once the market is expected to bottom out, yarn companies will increase their purchases of viscose staple fiber.
However, the current bottoming expectation has not occurred. Regarding the recent large-volume and low-price transactions in the short-term market, the market has two views on this. One believes that the industry may bottom at this low price, but the other believes that the market price will fall below the low price. The market mostly views the latter. No matter what, the current price of most sticky shorts is still about a thousand yuan higher than the low promotional price, so it is likely to continue to decline in the near future. The selling price of the rayon yarn market based on current cost accounting is also likely to continue to fall.
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